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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · PLYS250

Parlay 3-Hand Compounding Press — 250-Hand Weekend Horizon (100u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[PLYS250] Reinvests original stake plus net payout across three consecutive Banker wins before banking the compounded stack. Across 250-Hand Weekend Horizon (100u Bankroll) (Three-plus shoe weekend trip horizon backed by a full 100-unit session bankroll), staking Parlay Press on Banker (1.0579% house edge) generates 402.5 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −4.26 units, ±23.61 units of standard deviation, and a 89.7% session survival rate (10.3% bankroll ruin risk).

PLYS250 Action
402.5u
PLYS250 Expected EV
-4.26u
PLYS250 Session SD
±23.61u
PLYS250 Survival
89.7%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B P B B P P B P B P B B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = = ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠

PLYS250 (Parlay Press · 250H / 100u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter PLYS250 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

PLYS250 Staking Sequence
1-2-4-reset

Reinvests original stake plus net payout across three consecutive Banker wins before banking the compounded stack (Full-Reinvestment Press).

PLYS250 Cumulative Action
402.5u wagered

250 hands × 1.61u average stake multiplier.

PLYS250 Expected Cost (EV)
-4.26u

Linear expectation across 402.5u action at 1.0579% Banker edge.

PLYS250 Session Dispersion
±23.61u SD

Volatility envelope over 250 deals against a 100u bankroll.

PLYS250 Survival / Ruin Split
89.7% / 10.3%

Keeps out-of-pocket exposure at 1u per attempt while absorbing 5% Banker commission across each compounded press stage.

PLYS250 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

Parlay Press (PLYS250) Over 250 Hands With a 100-Unit Bankroll

[PLYS250-MECHANICS] Staking protocol PLYS250 applies Parlay 3-Hand Compounding Press (1-2-4-reset) on Banker across 250 hands with a 100-unit stop-loss. Reinvests original stake plus net payout across three consecutive Banker wins before banking the compounded stack. Three-plus shoe weekend trip horizon backed by a full 100-unit session bankroll.

[PLYS250-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, PLYS250 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.0579% Banker house edge: multiplying 402.5u cumulative action by −1.0579% locks in −4.26u expected drift with ±23.61u standard deviation. Keeps out-of-pocket exposure at 1u per attempt while absorbing 5% Banker commission across each compounded press stage. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

PLYS250 CheckpointPLYS250 HandsPLYS250 ActionPLYS250 EV DriftPLYS250 SD Band
PLYS250-Stage-150h [PLYS250]80.5u [PLYS250]-0.85u [PLYS250]±10.56u [PLYS250]
PLYS250-Stage-2100h [PLYS250]161.0u [PLYS250]-1.70u [PLYS250]±14.93u [PLYS250]
PLYS250-Stage-3150h [PLYS250]241.5u [PLYS250]-2.55u [PLYS250]±18.29u [PLYS250]
PLYS250-Stage-4200h [PLYS250]322.0u [PLYS250]-3.41u [PLYS250]±21.12u [PLYS250]
PLYS250-Stage-5250h [PLYS250]402.5u [PLYS250]-4.26u [PLYS250]±23.61u [PLYS250]
  • PLYS250 step sequence: 1-2-4-reset (1.61u mean bet size across 250 hands).
  • PLYS250 bankroll boundary: 100u starting stack faces 10.3% ruin risk and 89.7% survival probability.
  • PLYS250 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on BBPPBPBP never change the −4.26u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning Parlay Press over 250 hands with 100 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in PLYS250 faces the same 1.0579% Banker house edge; scaling bet sizes to 402.5u total action scales expected cost to −4.26u while reshaping variance (±23.61u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android