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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · PLYS500

Parlay 3-Hand Compounding Press — 500-Hand High-Limit Marathon (200u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[PLYS500] Reinvests original stake plus net payout across three consecutive Banker wins before banking the compounded stack. Across 500-Hand High-Limit Marathon (200u Bankroll) (Six-shoe salon marathon exposing long-run house-edge drift against a 200-unit reserve), staking Parlay Press on Banker (1.0579% house edge) generates 805.0 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −8.52 units, ±33.39 units of standard deviation, and a 88.0% session survival rate (12.0% bankroll ruin risk).

PLYS500 Action
805.0u
PLYS500 Expected EV
-8.52u
PLYS500 Session SD
±33.39u
PLYS500 Survival
88.0%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

PLYS500 (Parlay Press · 500H / 200u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter PLYS500 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

PLYS500 Staking Sequence
1-2-4-reset

Reinvests original stake plus net payout across three consecutive Banker wins before banking the compounded stack (Full-Reinvestment Press).

PLYS500 Cumulative Action
805.0u wagered

500 hands × 1.61u average stake multiplier.

PLYS500 Expected Cost (EV)
-8.52u

Linear expectation across 805.0u action at 1.0579% Banker edge.

PLYS500 Session Dispersion
±33.39u SD

Volatility envelope over 500 deals against a 200u bankroll.

PLYS500 Survival / Ruin Split
88.0% / 12.0%

Keeps out-of-pocket exposure at 1u per attempt while absorbing 5% Banker commission across each compounded press stage.

PLYS500 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

Parlay Press (PLYS500) Over 500 Hands With a 200-Unit Bankroll

[PLYS500-MECHANICS] Staking protocol PLYS500 applies Parlay 3-Hand Compounding Press (1-2-4-reset) on Banker across 500 hands with a 200-unit stop-loss. Reinvests original stake plus net payout across three consecutive Banker wins before banking the compounded stack. Six-shoe salon marathon exposing long-run house-edge drift against a 200-unit reserve.

[PLYS500-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, PLYS500 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.0579% Banker house edge: multiplying 805.0u cumulative action by −1.0579% locks in −8.52u expected drift with ±33.39u standard deviation. Keeps out-of-pocket exposure at 1u per attempt while absorbing 5% Banker commission across each compounded press stage. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

PLYS500 CheckpointPLYS500 HandsPLYS500 ActionPLYS500 EV DriftPLYS500 SD Band
PLYS500-Stage-1100h [PLYS500]161.0u [PLYS500]-1.70u [PLYS500]±14.93u [PLYS500]
PLYS500-Stage-2200h [PLYS500]322.0u [PLYS500]-3.41u [PLYS500]±21.12u [PLYS500]
PLYS500-Stage-3300h [PLYS500]483.0u [PLYS500]-5.11u [PLYS500]±25.86u [PLYS500]
PLYS500-Stage-4400h [PLYS500]644.0u [PLYS500]-6.81u [PLYS500]±29.86u [PLYS500]
PLYS500-Stage-5500h [PLYS500]805.0u [PLYS500]-8.52u [PLYS500]±33.39u [PLYS500]
  • PLYS500 step sequence: 1-2-4-reset (1.61u mean bet size across 500 hands).
  • PLYS500 bankroll boundary: 200u starting stack faces 12.0% ruin risk and 88.0% survival probability.
  • PLYS500 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on BBPPBBPP never change the −8.52u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning Parlay Press over 500 hands with 200 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in PLYS500 faces the same 1.0579% Banker house edge; scaling bet sizes to 805.0u total action scales expected cost to −8.52u while reshaping variance (±33.39u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android