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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · S1235S250

1-2-3-5 Staircase Sequence — 250-Hand Weekend Horizon (100u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[S1235S250] Steps up 1u, 2u, 3u, 5u on consecutive wins (+11u on four wins) and resets immediately to 1u on any loss. Across 250-Hand Weekend Horizon (100u Bankroll) (Three-plus shoe weekend trip horizon backed by a full 100-unit session bankroll), staking 1-2-3-5 Staircase on Player (1.2351% house edge) generates 380.0 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −4.69 units, ±22.86 units of standard deviation, and a 89.5% session survival rate (10.5% bankroll ruin risk).

S1235S250 Action
380.0u
S1235S250 Expected EV
-4.69u
S1235S250 Session SD
±22.86u
S1235S250 Survival
89.5%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

S1235S250 (1-2-3-5 Staircase · 250H / 100u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter S1235S250 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

S1235S250 Staking Sequence
1-2-3-5

Steps up 1u, 2u, 3u, 5u on consecutive wins (+11u on four wins) and resets immediately to 1u on any loss (Stepped Positive Progression).

S1235S250 Cumulative Action
380.0u wagered

250 hands × 1.52u average stake multiplier.

S1235S250 Expected Cost (EV)
-4.69u

Linear expectation across 380.0u action at 1.2351% Player edge.

S1235S250 Session Dispersion
±22.86u SD

Volatility envelope over 250 deals against a 100u bankroll.

S1235S250 Survival / Ruin Split
89.5% / 10.5%

Smooths out step-2 exposure (2u instead of 3u in 1-3-2-6), lowering two-hand variance across short 50-to-80 hand sessions.

S1235S250 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

1-2-3-5 Staircase (S1235S250) Over 250 Hands With a 100-Unit Bankroll

[S1235S250-MECHANICS] Staking protocol S1235S250 applies 1-2-3-5 Staircase Sequence (1-2-3-5) on Player across 250 hands with a 100-unit stop-loss. Steps up 1u, 2u, 3u, 5u on consecutive wins (+11u on four wins) and resets immediately to 1u on any loss. Three-plus shoe weekend trip horizon backed by a full 100-unit session bankroll.

[S1235S250-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, S1235S250 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.2351% Player house edge: multiplying 380.0u cumulative action by −1.2351% locks in −4.69u expected drift with ±22.86u standard deviation. Smooths out step-2 exposure (2u instead of 3u in 1-3-2-6), lowering two-hand variance across short 50-to-80 hand sessions. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

S1235S250 CheckpointS1235S250 HandsS1235S250 ActionS1235S250 EV DriftS1235S250 SD Band
S1235S250-Stage-150h [S1235S250]76.0u [S1235S250]-0.94u [S1235S250]±10.22u [S1235S250]
S1235S250-Stage-2100h [S1235S250]152.0u [S1235S250]-1.88u [S1235S250]±14.46u [S1235S250]
S1235S250-Stage-3150h [S1235S250]228.0u [S1235S250]-2.82u [S1235S250]±17.71u [S1235S250]
S1235S250-Stage-4200h [S1235S250]304.0u [S1235S250]-3.75u [S1235S250]±20.45u [S1235S250]
S1235S250-Stage-5250h [S1235S250]380.0u [S1235S250]-4.69u [S1235S250]±22.86u [S1235S250]
  • S1235S250 step sequence: 1-2-3-5 (1.52u mean bet size across 250 hands).
  • S1235S250 bankroll boundary: 100u starting stack faces 10.5% ruin risk and 89.5% survival probability.
  • S1235S250 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on BBPPBBPP never change the −4.69u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning 1-2-3-5 Staircase over 250 hands with 100 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in S1235S250 faces the same 1.2351% Player house edge; scaling bet sizes to 380.0u total action scales expected cost to −4.69u while reshaping variance (±22.86u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android