Skip to main content
Baccarat Smart
  1. Home
  2. Combinatorial Math Hub
  3. Avant Dernier (250H / 100u)
PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · AVDS250

Avant Dernier (Second-to-Last Follow) — 250-Hand Weekend Horizon (100u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[AVDS250] Matches the outcome of the hand dealt two decisions ago (penultimate hand), neutralizing choppy ping-pong vs double-column shoes. Across 250-Hand Weekend Horizon (100u Bankroll) (Three-plus shoe weekend trip horizon backed by a full 100-unit session bankroll), staking Avant Dernier on Banker (1.0579% house edge) generates 287.5 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −3.04 units, ±16.86 units of standard deviation, and a 92.6% session survival rate (7.4% bankroll ruin risk).

AVDS250 Action
287.5u
AVDS250 Expected EV
-3.04u
AVDS250 Session SD
±16.86u
AVDS250 Survival
92.6%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P P B B B P P P B B B P B P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = = = = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = = =
Cockroach Pig = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = =

AVDS250 (Avant Dernier · 250H / 100u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter AVDS250 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

AVDS250 Staking Sequence
Follow N-2 outcome

Matches the outcome of the hand dealt two decisions ago (penultimate hand), neutralizing choppy ping-pong vs double-column shoes (Pattern-Trigger Flat/Step Plan).

AVDS250 Cumulative Action
287.5u wagered

250 hands × 1.15u average stake multiplier.

AVDS250 Expected Cost (EV)
-3.04u

Linear expectation across 287.5u action at 1.0579% Banker edge.

AVDS250 Session Dispersion
±16.86u SD

Volatility envelope over 250 deals against a 100u bankroll.

AVDS250 Survival / Ruin Split
92.6% / 7.4%

Because finite-shoe outcomes are nearly independent, matching hand N−2 leaves the exact 1.0579% Banker / 1.2351% Player house edge intact.

AVDS250 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

Avant Dernier (AVDS250) Over 250 Hands With a 100-Unit Bankroll

[AVDS250-MECHANICS] Staking protocol AVDS250 applies Avant Dernier (Second-to-Last Follow) (Follow N-2 outcome) on Banker across 250 hands with a 100-unit stop-loss. Matches the outcome of the hand dealt two decisions ago (penultimate hand), neutralizing choppy ping-pong vs double-column shoes. Three-plus shoe weekend trip horizon backed by a full 100-unit session bankroll.

[AVDS250-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, AVDS250 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.0579% Banker house edge: multiplying 287.5u cumulative action by −1.0579% locks in −3.04u expected drift with ±16.86u standard deviation. Because finite-shoe outcomes are nearly independent, matching hand N−2 leaves the exact 1.0579% Banker / 1.2351% Player house edge intact. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

AVDS250 CheckpointAVDS250 HandsAVDS250 ActionAVDS250 EV DriftAVDS250 SD Band
AVDS250-Stage-150h [AVDS250]57.5u [AVDS250]-0.61u [AVDS250]±7.54u [AVDS250]
AVDS250-Stage-2100h [AVDS250]115.0u [AVDS250]-1.22u [AVDS250]±10.66u [AVDS250]
AVDS250-Stage-3150h [AVDS250]172.5u [AVDS250]-1.82u [AVDS250]±13.06u [AVDS250]
AVDS250-Stage-4200h [AVDS250]230.0u [AVDS250]-2.43u [AVDS250]±15.08u [AVDS250]
AVDS250-Stage-5250h [AVDS250]287.5u [AVDS250]-3.04u [AVDS250]±16.86u [AVDS250]
  • AVDS250 step sequence: Follow N-2 outcome (1.15u mean bet size across 250 hands).
  • AVDS250 bankroll boundary: 100u starting stack faces 7.4% ruin risk and 92.6% survival probability.
  • AVDS250 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on PPPBBBPP never change the −3.04u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning Avant Dernier over 250 hands with 100 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in AVDS250 faces the same 1.0579% Banker house edge; scaling bet sizes to 287.5u total action scales expected cost to −3.04u while reshaping variance (±16.86u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android