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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · AVDS500

Avant Dernier (Second-to-Last Follow) — 500-Hand High-Limit Marathon (200u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[AVDS500] Matches the outcome of the hand dealt two decisions ago (penultimate hand), neutralizing choppy ping-pong vs double-column shoes. Across 500-Hand High-Limit Marathon (200u Bankroll) (Six-shoe salon marathon exposing long-run house-edge drift against a 200-unit reserve), staking Avant Dernier on Banker (1.0579% house edge) generates 575.0 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −6.08 units, ±23.85 units of standard deviation, and a 91.4% session survival rate (8.6% bankroll ruin risk).

AVDS500 Action
575.0u
AVDS500 Expected EV
-6.08u
AVDS500 Session SD
±23.85u
AVDS500 Survival
91.4%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B P B P B P B B P P B B P P B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = ≠ ≠ = = = = = = ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ =
Cockroach Pig = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠

AVDS500 (Avant Dernier · 500H / 200u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter AVDS500 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 1 bead. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 2, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 1 bead. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 1 bead. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 1 bead. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 1 bead. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 1 bead. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

AVDS500 Staking Sequence
Follow N-2 outcome

Matches the outcome of the hand dealt two decisions ago (penultimate hand), neutralizing choppy ping-pong vs double-column shoes (Pattern-Trigger Flat/Step Plan).

AVDS500 Cumulative Action
575.0u wagered

500 hands × 1.15u average stake multiplier.

AVDS500 Expected Cost (EV)
-6.08u

Linear expectation across 575.0u action at 1.0579% Banker edge.

AVDS500 Session Dispersion
±23.85u SD

Volatility envelope over 500 deals against a 200u bankroll.

AVDS500 Survival / Ruin Split
91.4% / 8.6%

Because finite-shoe outcomes are nearly independent, matching hand N−2 leaves the exact 1.0579% Banker / 1.2351% Player house edge intact.

AVDS500 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

Avant Dernier (AVDS500) Over 500 Hands With a 200-Unit Bankroll

[AVDS500-MECHANICS] Staking protocol AVDS500 applies Avant Dernier (Second-to-Last Follow) (Follow N-2 outcome) on Banker across 500 hands with a 200-unit stop-loss. Matches the outcome of the hand dealt two decisions ago (penultimate hand), neutralizing choppy ping-pong vs double-column shoes. Six-shoe salon marathon exposing long-run house-edge drift against a 200-unit reserve.

[AVDS500-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, AVDS500 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.0579% Banker house edge: multiplying 575.0u cumulative action by −1.0579% locks in −6.08u expected drift with ±23.85u standard deviation. Because finite-shoe outcomes are nearly independent, matching hand N−2 leaves the exact 1.0579% Banker / 1.2351% Player house edge intact. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

AVDS500 CheckpointAVDS500 HandsAVDS500 ActionAVDS500 EV DriftAVDS500 SD Band
AVDS500-Stage-1100h [AVDS500]115.0u [AVDS500]-1.22u [AVDS500]±10.66u [AVDS500]
AVDS500-Stage-2200h [AVDS500]230.0u [AVDS500]-2.43u [AVDS500]±15.08u [AVDS500]
AVDS500-Stage-3300h [AVDS500]345.0u [AVDS500]-3.65u [AVDS500]±18.47u [AVDS500]
AVDS500-Stage-4400h [AVDS500]460.0u [AVDS500]-4.87u [AVDS500]±21.33u [AVDS500]
AVDS500-Stage-5500h [AVDS500]575.0u [AVDS500]-6.08u [AVDS500]±23.85u [AVDS500]
  • AVDS500 step sequence: Follow N-2 outcome (1.15u mean bet size across 500 hands).
  • AVDS500 bankroll boundary: 200u starting stack faces 8.6% ruin risk and 91.4% survival probability.
  • AVDS500 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on BPBPBPBB never change the −6.08u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning Avant Dernier over 500 hands with 200 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in AVDS500 faces the same 1.0579% Banker house edge; scaling bet sizes to 575.0u total action scales expected cost to −6.08u while reshaping variance (±23.85u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android