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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · AVDS50

Avant Dernier (Second-to-Last Follow) — 50-Hand Sprint (20u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[AVDS50] Matches the outcome of the hand dealt two decisions ago (penultimate hand), neutralizing choppy ping-pong vs double-column shoes. Across 50-Hand Sprint (20u Bankroll) (Fast 45-minute mini-baccarat or two-thirds shoe sprint with a compact 20-unit buy-in), staking Avant Dernier on Banker (1.0579% house edge) generates 57.5 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −0.61 units, ±7.54 units of standard deviation, and a 88.8% session survival rate (11.2% bankroll ruin risk).

AVDS50 Action
57.5u
AVDS50 Expected EV
-0.61u
AVDS50 Session SD
±7.54u
AVDS50 Survival
88.8%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B P P B P P B B B P B P B B P P
Big Eye Boy ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠

AVDS50 (Avant Dernier · 50H / 20u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter AVDS50 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

AVDS50 Staking Sequence
Follow N-2 outcome

Matches the outcome of the hand dealt two decisions ago (penultimate hand), neutralizing choppy ping-pong vs double-column shoes (Pattern-Trigger Flat/Step Plan).

AVDS50 Cumulative Action
57.5u wagered

50 hands × 1.15u average stake multiplier.

AVDS50 Expected Cost (EV)
-0.61u

Linear expectation across 57.5u action at 1.0579% Banker edge.

AVDS50 Session Dispersion
±7.54u SD

Volatility envelope over 50 deals against a 20u bankroll.

AVDS50 Survival / Ruin Split
88.8% / 11.2%

Because finite-shoe outcomes are nearly independent, matching hand N−2 leaves the exact 1.0579% Banker / 1.2351% Player house edge intact.

AVDS50 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

Avant Dernier (AVDS50) Over 50 Hands With a 20-Unit Bankroll

[AVDS50-MECHANICS] Staking protocol AVDS50 applies Avant Dernier (Second-to-Last Follow) (Follow N-2 outcome) on Banker across 50 hands with a 20-unit stop-loss. Matches the outcome of the hand dealt two decisions ago (penultimate hand), neutralizing choppy ping-pong vs double-column shoes. Fast 45-minute mini-baccarat or two-thirds shoe sprint with a compact 20-unit buy-in.

[AVDS50-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, AVDS50 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.0579% Banker house edge: multiplying 57.5u cumulative action by −1.0579% locks in −0.61u expected drift with ±7.54u standard deviation. Because finite-shoe outcomes are nearly independent, matching hand N−2 leaves the exact 1.0579% Banker / 1.2351% Player house edge intact. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

AVDS50 CheckpointAVDS50 HandsAVDS50 ActionAVDS50 EV DriftAVDS50 SD Band
AVDS50-Stage-110h [AVDS50]11.5u [AVDS50]-0.12u [AVDS50]±3.37u [AVDS50]
AVDS50-Stage-220h [AVDS50]23.0u [AVDS50]-0.24u [AVDS50]±4.77u [AVDS50]
AVDS50-Stage-330h [AVDS50]34.5u [AVDS50]-0.36u [AVDS50]±5.84u [AVDS50]
AVDS50-Stage-440h [AVDS50]46.0u [AVDS50]-0.49u [AVDS50]±6.74u [AVDS50]
AVDS50-Stage-550h [AVDS50]57.5u [AVDS50]-0.61u [AVDS50]±7.54u [AVDS50]
  • AVDS50 step sequence: Follow N-2 outcome (1.15u mean bet size across 50 hands).
  • AVDS50 bankroll boundary: 20u starting stack faces 11.2% ruin risk and 88.8% survival probability.
  • AVDS50 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on PPBPPBPP never change the −0.61u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning Avant Dernier over 50 hands with 20 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in AVDS50 faces the same 1.0579% Banker house edge; scaling bet sizes to 57.5u total action scales expected cost to −0.61u while reshaping variance (±7.54u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android