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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · AVDS80

Avant Dernier (Second-to-Last Follow) — 80-Hand Single Shoe (40u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[AVDS80] Matches the outcome of the hand dealt two decisions ago (penultimate hand), neutralizing choppy ping-pong vs double-column shoes. Across 80-Hand Single Shoe (40u Bankroll) (Complete 8-deck live shoe from burn card to cut card backed by a 40-unit session stack), staking Avant Dernier on Banker (1.0579% house edge) generates 92.0 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −0.97 units, ±9.54 units of standard deviation, and a 92.4% session survival rate (7.6% bankroll ruin risk).

AVDS80 Action
92.0u
AVDS80 Expected EV
-0.97u
AVDS80 Session SD
±9.54u
AVDS80 Survival
92.4%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B P B B P P B P B P B B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = = ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠

AVDS80 (Avant Dernier · 80H / 40u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter AVDS80 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

AVDS80 Staking Sequence
Follow N-2 outcome

Matches the outcome of the hand dealt two decisions ago (penultimate hand), neutralizing choppy ping-pong vs double-column shoes (Pattern-Trigger Flat/Step Plan).

AVDS80 Cumulative Action
92.0u wagered

80 hands × 1.15u average stake multiplier.

AVDS80 Expected Cost (EV)
-0.97u

Linear expectation across 92.0u action at 1.0579% Banker edge.

AVDS80 Session Dispersion
±9.54u SD

Volatility envelope over 80 deals against a 40u bankroll.

AVDS80 Survival / Ruin Split
92.4% / 7.6%

Because finite-shoe outcomes are nearly independent, matching hand N−2 leaves the exact 1.0579% Banker / 1.2351% Player house edge intact.

AVDS80 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

Avant Dernier (AVDS80) Over 80 Hands With a 40-Unit Bankroll

[AVDS80-MECHANICS] Staking protocol AVDS80 applies Avant Dernier (Second-to-Last Follow) (Follow N-2 outcome) on Banker across 80 hands with a 40-unit stop-loss. Matches the outcome of the hand dealt two decisions ago (penultimate hand), neutralizing choppy ping-pong vs double-column shoes. Complete 8-deck live shoe from burn card to cut card backed by a 40-unit session stack.

[AVDS80-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, AVDS80 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.0579% Banker house edge: multiplying 92.0u cumulative action by −1.0579% locks in −0.97u expected drift with ±9.54u standard deviation. Because finite-shoe outcomes are nearly independent, matching hand N−2 leaves the exact 1.0579% Banker / 1.2351% Player house edge intact. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

AVDS80 CheckpointAVDS80 HandsAVDS80 ActionAVDS80 EV DriftAVDS80 SD Band
AVDS80-Stage-116h [AVDS80]18.4u [AVDS80]-0.19u [AVDS80]±4.27u [AVDS80]
AVDS80-Stage-232h [AVDS80]36.8u [AVDS80]-0.39u [AVDS80]±6.03u [AVDS80]
AVDS80-Stage-348h [AVDS80]55.2u [AVDS80]-0.58u [AVDS80]±7.39u [AVDS80]
AVDS80-Stage-464h [AVDS80]73.6u [AVDS80]-0.78u [AVDS80]±8.53u [AVDS80]
AVDS80-Stage-580h [AVDS80]92.0u [AVDS80]-0.97u [AVDS80]±9.54u [AVDS80]
  • AVDS80 step sequence: Follow N-2 outcome (1.15u mean bet size across 80 hands).
  • AVDS80 bankroll boundary: 40u starting stack faces 7.6% ruin risk and 92.4% survival probability.
  • AVDS80 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on BBPPBPBP never change the −0.97u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning Avant Dernier over 80 hands with 40 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in AVDS80 faces the same 1.0579% Banker house edge; scaling bet sizes to 92.0u total action scales expected cost to −0.97u while reshaping variance (±9.54u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android