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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · AVDS160

Avant Dernier (Second-to-Last Follow) — 160-Hand Two-Shoe Session (50u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[AVDS160] Matches the outcome of the hand dealt two decisions ago (penultimate hand), neutralizing choppy ping-pong vs double-column shoes. Across 160-Hand Two-Shoe Session (50u Bankroll) (Back-to-back two-shoe floor session testing progression endurance under a 50-unit stop-loss), staking Avant Dernier on Banker (1.0579% house edge) generates 184.0 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −1.95 units, ±13.49 units of standard deviation, and a 90.7% session survival rate (9.3% bankroll ruin risk).

AVDS160 Action
184.0u
AVDS160 Expected EV
-1.95u
AVDS160 Session SD
±13.49u
AVDS160 Survival
90.7%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

AVDS160 (Avant Dernier · 160H / 50u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter AVDS160 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

AVDS160 Staking Sequence
Follow N-2 outcome

Matches the outcome of the hand dealt two decisions ago (penultimate hand), neutralizing choppy ping-pong vs double-column shoes (Pattern-Trigger Flat/Step Plan).

AVDS160 Cumulative Action
184.0u wagered

160 hands × 1.15u average stake multiplier.

AVDS160 Expected Cost (EV)
-1.95u

Linear expectation across 184.0u action at 1.0579% Banker edge.

AVDS160 Session Dispersion
±13.49u SD

Volatility envelope over 160 deals against a 50u bankroll.

AVDS160 Survival / Ruin Split
90.7% / 9.3%

Because finite-shoe outcomes are nearly independent, matching hand N−2 leaves the exact 1.0579% Banker / 1.2351% Player house edge intact.

AVDS160 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

Avant Dernier (AVDS160) Over 160 Hands With a 50-Unit Bankroll

[AVDS160-MECHANICS] Staking protocol AVDS160 applies Avant Dernier (Second-to-Last Follow) (Follow N-2 outcome) on Banker across 160 hands with a 50-unit stop-loss. Matches the outcome of the hand dealt two decisions ago (penultimate hand), neutralizing choppy ping-pong vs double-column shoes. Back-to-back two-shoe floor session testing progression endurance under a 50-unit stop-loss.

[AVDS160-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, AVDS160 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.0579% Banker house edge: multiplying 184.0u cumulative action by −1.0579% locks in −1.95u expected drift with ±13.49u standard deviation. Because finite-shoe outcomes are nearly independent, matching hand N−2 leaves the exact 1.0579% Banker / 1.2351% Player house edge intact. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

AVDS160 CheckpointAVDS160 HandsAVDS160 ActionAVDS160 EV DriftAVDS160 SD Band
AVDS160-Stage-132h [AVDS160]36.8u [AVDS160]-0.39u [AVDS160]±6.03u [AVDS160]
AVDS160-Stage-264h [AVDS160]73.6u [AVDS160]-0.78u [AVDS160]±8.53u [AVDS160]
AVDS160-Stage-396h [AVDS160]110.4u [AVDS160]-1.17u [AVDS160]±10.45u [AVDS160]
AVDS160-Stage-4128h [AVDS160]147.2u [AVDS160]-1.56u [AVDS160]±12.07u [AVDS160]
AVDS160-Stage-5160h [AVDS160]184.0u [AVDS160]-1.95u [AVDS160]±13.49u [AVDS160]
  • AVDS160 step sequence: Follow N-2 outcome (1.15u mean bet size across 160 hands).
  • AVDS160 bankroll boundary: 50u starting stack faces 9.3% ruin risk and 90.7% survival probability.
  • AVDS160 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on BBPPBBPP never change the −1.95u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning Avant Dernier over 160 hands with 50 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in AVDS160 faces the same 1.0579% Banker house edge; scaling bet sizes to 184.0u total action scales expected cost to −1.95u while reshaping variance (±13.49u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android