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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · MRGS80

Martingale Doubling (1-2-4-8-16) — 80-Hand Single Shoe (40u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[MRGS80] Doubles the wager after every resolved loss and resets to 1 unit immediately after any win. Across 80-Hand Single Shoe (40u Bankroll) (Complete 8-deck live shoe from burn card to cut card backed by a 40-unit session stack), staking Martingale on Player (1.2351% house edge) generates 252.0 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −3.11 units, ±26.80 units of standard deviation, and a 78.3% session survival rate (21.7% bankroll ruin risk).

MRGS80 Action
252.0u
MRGS80 Expected EV
-3.11u
MRGS80 Session SD
±26.80u
MRGS80 Survival
78.3%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B B B P P P P B B B B P P B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = = = = =
Small Road = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Cockroach Pig = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠

MRGS80 (Martingale · 80H / 40u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter MRGS80 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 4 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 4 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

MRGS80 Staking Sequence
1-2-4-8-16-32

Doubles the wager after every resolved loss and resets to 1 unit immediately after any win (Geometric Negative Progression).

MRGS80 Cumulative Action
252.0u wagered

80 hands × 3.15u average stake multiplier.

MRGS80 Expected Cost (EV)
-3.11u

Linear expectation across 252.0u action at 1.2351% Player edge.

MRGS80 Session Dispersion
±26.80u SD

Volatility envelope over 80 deals against a 40u bankroll.

MRGS80 Survival / Ruin Split
78.3% / 21.7%

Compresses frequent 1-unit wins against catastrophic multi-step drawdown cliffs when 5 to 7 consecutive losses hit the bankroll or table cap.

MRGS80 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

Martingale (MRGS80) Over 80 Hands With a 40-Unit Bankroll

[MRGS80-MECHANICS] Staking protocol MRGS80 applies Martingale Doubling (1-2-4-8-16) (1-2-4-8-16-32) on Player across 80 hands with a 40-unit stop-loss. Doubles the wager after every resolved loss and resets to 1 unit immediately after any win. Complete 8-deck live shoe from burn card to cut card backed by a 40-unit session stack.

[MRGS80-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, MRGS80 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.2351% Player house edge: multiplying 252.0u cumulative action by −1.2351% locks in −3.11u expected drift with ±26.80u standard deviation. Compresses frequent 1-unit wins against catastrophic multi-step drawdown cliffs when 5 to 7 consecutive losses hit the bankroll or table cap. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

MRGS80 CheckpointMRGS80 HandsMRGS80 ActionMRGS80 EV DriftMRGS80 SD Band
MRGS80-Stage-116h [MRGS80]50.4u [MRGS80]-0.62u [MRGS80]±11.98u [MRGS80]
MRGS80-Stage-232h [MRGS80]100.8u [MRGS80]-1.24u [MRGS80]±16.95u [MRGS80]
MRGS80-Stage-348h [MRGS80]151.2u [MRGS80]-1.87u [MRGS80]±20.76u [MRGS80]
MRGS80-Stage-464h [MRGS80]201.6u [MRGS80]-2.49u [MRGS80]±23.97u [MRGS80]
MRGS80-Stage-580h [MRGS80]252.0u [MRGS80]-3.11u [MRGS80]±26.80u [MRGS80]
  • MRGS80 step sequence: 1-2-4-8-16-32 (3.15u mean bet size across 80 hands).
  • MRGS80 bankroll boundary: 40u starting stack faces 21.7% ruin risk and 78.3% survival probability.
  • MRGS80 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on BBBBPPPP never change the −3.11u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning Martingale over 80 hands with 40 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in MRGS80 faces the same 1.2351% Player house edge; scaling bet sizes to 252.0u total action scales expected cost to −3.11u while reshaping variance (±26.80u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android