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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · GMRS80

Grand Martingale (1-3-7-15-31) — 80-Hand Single Shoe (40u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[GMRS80] Doubles the prior wager plus 1 extra unit after every loss (1, 3, 7, 15, 31) and resets to 1u on a win. Across 80-Hand Single Shoe (40u Bankroll) (Complete 8-deck live shoe from burn card to cut card backed by a 40-unit session stack), staking Grand Martingale on Player (1.2351% house edge) generates 353.6 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −4.37 units, ±37.60 units of standard deviation, and a 69.6% session survival rate (30.4% bankroll ruin risk).

GMRS80 Action
353.6u
GMRS80 Expected EV
-4.37u
GMRS80 Session SD
±37.60u
GMRS80 Survival
69.6%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P P B B P B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠

GMRS80 (Grand Martingale · 80H / 40u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter GMRS80 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

GMRS80 Staking Sequence
1-3-7-15-31-63

Doubles the prior wager plus 1 extra unit after every loss (1, 3, 7, 15, 31) and resets to 1u on a win (Aggressive Negative Progression).

GMRS80 Cumulative Action
353.6u wagered

80 hands × 4.42u average stake multiplier.

GMRS80 Expected Cost (EV)
-4.37u

Linear expectation across 353.6u action at 1.2351% Player edge.

GMRS80 Session Dispersion
±37.60u SD

Volatility envelope over 80 deals against a 40u bankroll.

GMRS80 Survival / Ruin Split
69.6% / 30.4%

Accelerates cumulative bankroll commitment to 57 units by step 5, exhausting medium bankrolls two steps faster than standard Martingale.

GMRS80 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

Grand Martingale (GMRS80) Over 80 Hands With a 40-Unit Bankroll

[GMRS80-MECHANICS] Staking protocol GMRS80 applies Grand Martingale (1-3-7-15-31) (1-3-7-15-31-63) on Player across 80 hands with a 40-unit stop-loss. Doubles the prior wager plus 1 extra unit after every loss (1, 3, 7, 15, 31) and resets to 1u on a win. Complete 8-deck live shoe from burn card to cut card backed by a 40-unit session stack.

[GMRS80-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, GMRS80 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.2351% Player house edge: multiplying 353.6u cumulative action by −1.2351% locks in −4.37u expected drift with ±37.60u standard deviation. Accelerates cumulative bankroll commitment to 57 units by step 5, exhausting medium bankrolls two steps faster than standard Martingale. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

GMRS80 CheckpointGMRS80 HandsGMRS80 ActionGMRS80 EV DriftGMRS80 SD Band
GMRS80-Stage-116h [GMRS80]70.7u [GMRS80]-0.87u [GMRS80]±16.82u [GMRS80]
GMRS80-Stage-232h [GMRS80]141.4u [GMRS80]-1.75u [GMRS80]±23.78u [GMRS80]
GMRS80-Stage-348h [GMRS80]212.2u [GMRS80]-2.62u [GMRS80]±29.13u [GMRS80]
GMRS80-Stage-464h [GMRS80]282.9u [GMRS80]-3.49u [GMRS80]±33.63u [GMRS80]
GMRS80-Stage-580h [GMRS80]353.6u [GMRS80]-4.37u [GMRS80]±37.60u [GMRS80]
  • GMRS80 step sequence: 1-3-7-15-31-63 (4.42u mean bet size across 80 hands).
  • GMRS80 bankroll boundary: 40u starting stack faces 30.4% ruin risk and 69.6% survival probability.
  • GMRS80 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on PPBBPPBB never change the −4.37u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning Grand Martingale over 80 hands with 40 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in GMRS80 faces the same 1.2351% Player house edge; scaling bet sizes to 353.6u total action scales expected cost to −4.37u while reshaping variance (±37.60u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android