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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · GMRS160

Grand Martingale (1-3-7-15-31) — 160-Hand Two-Shoe Session (50u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[GMRS160] Doubles the prior wager plus 1 extra unit after every loss (1, 3, 7, 15, 31) and resets to 1u on a win. Across 160-Hand Two-Shoe Session (50u Bankroll) (Back-to-back two-shoe floor session testing progression endurance under a 50-unit stop-loss), staking Grand Martingale on Player (1.2351% house edge) generates 707.2 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −8.73 units, ±53.18 units of standard deviation, and a 62.4% session survival rate (37.6% bankroll ruin risk).

GMRS160 Action
707.2u
GMRS160 Expected EV
-8.73u
GMRS160 Session SD
±53.18u
GMRS160 Survival
62.4%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P B B P B B P P P P B B P P B P
Big Eye Boy ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠
Small Road = = = = = ≠ = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠

GMRS160 (Grand Martingale · 160H / 50u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter GMRS160 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

GMRS160 Staking Sequence
1-3-7-15-31-63

Doubles the prior wager plus 1 extra unit after every loss (1, 3, 7, 15, 31) and resets to 1u on a win (Aggressive Negative Progression).

GMRS160 Cumulative Action
707.2u wagered

160 hands × 4.42u average stake multiplier.

GMRS160 Expected Cost (EV)
-8.73u

Linear expectation across 707.2u action at 1.2351% Player edge.

GMRS160 Session Dispersion
±53.18u SD

Volatility envelope over 160 deals against a 50u bankroll.

GMRS160 Survival / Ruin Split
62.4% / 37.6%

Accelerates cumulative bankroll commitment to 57 units by step 5, exhausting medium bankrolls two steps faster than standard Martingale.

GMRS160 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

Grand Martingale (GMRS160) Over 160 Hands With a 50-Unit Bankroll

[GMRS160-MECHANICS] Staking protocol GMRS160 applies Grand Martingale (1-3-7-15-31) (1-3-7-15-31-63) on Player across 160 hands with a 50-unit stop-loss. Doubles the prior wager plus 1 extra unit after every loss (1, 3, 7, 15, 31) and resets to 1u on a win. Back-to-back two-shoe floor session testing progression endurance under a 50-unit stop-loss.

[GMRS160-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, GMRS160 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.2351% Player house edge: multiplying 707.2u cumulative action by −1.2351% locks in −8.73u expected drift with ±53.18u standard deviation. Accelerates cumulative bankroll commitment to 57 units by step 5, exhausting medium bankrolls two steps faster than standard Martingale. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

GMRS160 CheckpointGMRS160 HandsGMRS160 ActionGMRS160 EV DriftGMRS160 SD Band
GMRS160-Stage-132h [GMRS160]141.4u [GMRS160]-1.75u [GMRS160]±23.78u [GMRS160]
GMRS160-Stage-264h [GMRS160]282.9u [GMRS160]-3.49u [GMRS160]±33.63u [GMRS160]
GMRS160-Stage-396h [GMRS160]424.3u [GMRS160]-5.24u [GMRS160]±41.19u [GMRS160]
GMRS160-Stage-4128h [GMRS160]565.8u [GMRS160]-6.99u [GMRS160]±47.56u [GMRS160]
GMRS160-Stage-5160h [GMRS160]707.2u [GMRS160]-8.73u [GMRS160]±53.18u [GMRS160]
  • GMRS160 step sequence: 1-3-7-15-31-63 (4.42u mean bet size across 160 hands).
  • GMRS160 bankroll boundary: 50u starting stack faces 37.6% ruin risk and 62.4% survival probability.
  • GMRS160 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on BBPBBPBB never change the −8.73u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning Grand Martingale over 160 hands with 50 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in GMRS160 faces the same 1.2351% Player house edge; scaling bet sizes to 707.2u total action scales expected cost to −8.73u while reshaping variance (±53.18u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android