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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · MRGS160

Martingale Doubling (1-2-4-8-16) — 160-Hand Two-Shoe Session (50u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[MRGS160] Doubles the wager after every resolved loss and resets to 1 unit immediately after any win. Across 160-Hand Two-Shoe Session (50u Bankroll) (Back-to-back two-shoe floor session testing progression endurance under a 50-unit stop-loss), staking Martingale on Player (1.2351% house edge) generates 504.0 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −6.22 units, ±37.90 units of standard deviation, and a 73.2% session survival rate (26.8% bankroll ruin risk).

MRGS160 Action
504.0u
MRGS160 Expected EV
-6.22u
MRGS160 Session SD
±37.90u
MRGS160 Survival
73.2%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P P B B P B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠

MRGS160 (Martingale · 160H / 50u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter MRGS160 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

MRGS160 Staking Sequence
1-2-4-8-16-32

Doubles the wager after every resolved loss and resets to 1 unit immediately after any win (Geometric Negative Progression).

MRGS160 Cumulative Action
504.0u wagered

160 hands × 3.15u average stake multiplier.

MRGS160 Expected Cost (EV)
-6.22u

Linear expectation across 504.0u action at 1.2351% Player edge.

MRGS160 Session Dispersion
±37.90u SD

Volatility envelope over 160 deals against a 50u bankroll.

MRGS160 Survival / Ruin Split
73.2% / 26.8%

Compresses frequent 1-unit wins against catastrophic multi-step drawdown cliffs when 5 to 7 consecutive losses hit the bankroll or table cap.

MRGS160 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

Martingale (MRGS160) Over 160 Hands With a 50-Unit Bankroll

[MRGS160-MECHANICS] Staking protocol MRGS160 applies Martingale Doubling (1-2-4-8-16) (1-2-4-8-16-32) on Player across 160 hands with a 50-unit stop-loss. Doubles the wager after every resolved loss and resets to 1 unit immediately after any win. Back-to-back two-shoe floor session testing progression endurance under a 50-unit stop-loss.

[MRGS160-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, MRGS160 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.2351% Player house edge: multiplying 504.0u cumulative action by −1.2351% locks in −6.22u expected drift with ±37.90u standard deviation. Compresses frequent 1-unit wins against catastrophic multi-step drawdown cliffs when 5 to 7 consecutive losses hit the bankroll or table cap. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

MRGS160 CheckpointMRGS160 HandsMRGS160 ActionMRGS160 EV DriftMRGS160 SD Band
MRGS160-Stage-132h [MRGS160]100.8u [MRGS160]-1.24u [MRGS160]±16.95u [MRGS160]
MRGS160-Stage-264h [MRGS160]201.6u [MRGS160]-2.49u [MRGS160]±23.97u [MRGS160]
MRGS160-Stage-396h [MRGS160]302.4u [MRGS160]-3.73u [MRGS160]±29.36u [MRGS160]
MRGS160-Stage-4128h [MRGS160]403.2u [MRGS160]-4.98u [MRGS160]±33.90u [MRGS160]
MRGS160-Stage-5160h [MRGS160]504.0u [MRGS160]-6.22u [MRGS160]±37.90u [MRGS160]
  • MRGS160 step sequence: 1-2-4-8-16-32 (3.15u mean bet size across 160 hands).
  • MRGS160 bankroll boundary: 50u starting stack faces 26.8% ruin risk and 73.2% survival probability.
  • MRGS160 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on PPBBPPBB never change the −6.22u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning Martingale over 160 hands with 50 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in MRGS160 faces the same 1.2351% Player house edge; scaling bet sizes to 504.0u total action scales expected cost to −6.22u while reshaping variance (±37.90u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android