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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · FPLS80

Flat Betting Player (1u Constant) — 80-Hand Single Shoe (40u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[FPLS80] Wagers a constant 1 unit on Player every hand with even-money 1:1 settlement and zero vig breakage. Across 80-Hand Single Shoe (40u Bankroll) (Complete 8-deck live shoe from burn card to cut card backed by a 40-unit session stack), staking Flat Player on Player (1.2351% house edge) generates 80.0 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −0.99 units, ±8.51 units of standard deviation, and a 93.1% session survival rate (6.9% bankroll ruin risk).

FPLS80 Action
80.0u
FPLS80 Expected EV
-0.99u
FPLS80 Session SD
±8.51u
FPLS80 Survival
93.1%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B P B P B P B B P P B B P P B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = ≠ ≠ = = = = = = ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ =
Cockroach Pig = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠

FPLS80 (Flat Player · 80H / 40u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter FPLS80 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 1 bead. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 2, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 1 bead. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 1 bead. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 1 bead. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 1 bead. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 1 bead. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

FPLS80 Staking Sequence
1-1-1-1-1

Wagers a constant 1 unit on Player every hand with even-money 1:1 settlement and zero vig breakage (Constant-Unit Baseline).

FPLS80 Cumulative Action
80.0u wagered

80 hands × 1.00u average stake multiplier.

FPLS80 Expected Cost (EV)
-0.99u

Linear expectation across 80.0u action at 1.2351% Player edge.

FPLS80 Session Dispersion
±8.51u SD

Volatility envelope over 80 deals against a 40u bankroll.

FPLS80 Survival / Ruin Split
93.1% / 6.9%

Eliminates 5% commission accounting at the cost of a 1.2351% house edge per unit staked.

FPLS80 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

Flat Player (FPLS80) Over 80 Hands With a 40-Unit Bankroll

[FPLS80-MECHANICS] Staking protocol FPLS80 applies Flat Betting Player (1u Constant) (1-1-1-1-1) on Player across 80 hands with a 40-unit stop-loss. Wagers a constant 1 unit on Player every hand with even-money 1:1 settlement and zero vig breakage. Complete 8-deck live shoe from burn card to cut card backed by a 40-unit session stack.

[FPLS80-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, FPLS80 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.2351% Player house edge: multiplying 80.0u cumulative action by −1.2351% locks in −0.99u expected drift with ±8.51u standard deviation. Eliminates 5% commission accounting at the cost of a 1.2351% house edge per unit staked. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

FPLS80 CheckpointFPLS80 HandsFPLS80 ActionFPLS80 EV DriftFPLS80 SD Band
FPLS80-Stage-116h [FPLS80]16.0u [FPLS80]-0.20u [FPLS80]±3.80u [FPLS80]
FPLS80-Stage-232h [FPLS80]32.0u [FPLS80]-0.40u [FPLS80]±5.38u [FPLS80]
FPLS80-Stage-348h [FPLS80]48.0u [FPLS80]-0.59u [FPLS80]±6.59u [FPLS80]
FPLS80-Stage-464h [FPLS80]64.0u [FPLS80]-0.79u [FPLS80]±7.61u [FPLS80]
FPLS80-Stage-580h [FPLS80]80.0u [FPLS80]-0.99u [FPLS80]±8.51u [FPLS80]
  • FPLS80 step sequence: 1-1-1-1-1 (1.00u mean bet size across 80 hands).
  • FPLS80 bankroll boundary: 40u starting stack faces 6.9% ruin risk and 93.1% survival probability.
  • FPLS80 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on BPBPBPBB never change the −0.99u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning Flat Player over 80 hands with 40 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in FPLS80 faces the same 1.2351% Player house edge; scaling bet sizes to 80.0u total action scales expected cost to −0.99u while reshaping variance (±8.51u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android