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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · FPLS160

Flat Betting Player (1u Constant) — 160-Hand Two-Shoe Session (50u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[FPLS160] Wagers a constant 1 unit on Player every hand with even-money 1:1 settlement and zero vig breakage. Across 160-Hand Two-Shoe Session (50u Bankroll) (Back-to-back two-shoe floor session testing progression endurance under a 50-unit stop-loss), staking Flat Player on Player (1.2351% house edge) generates 160.0 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −1.98 units, ±12.03 units of standard deviation, and a 91.5% session survival rate (8.5% bankroll ruin risk).

FPLS160 Action
160.0u
FPLS160 Expected EV
-1.98u
FPLS160 Session SD
±12.03u
FPLS160 Survival
91.5%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B B B P P P P B B B B P P B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = = = = =
Small Road = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Cockroach Pig = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠

FPLS160 (Flat Player · 160H / 50u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter FPLS160 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 4 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 4 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

FPLS160 Staking Sequence
1-1-1-1-1

Wagers a constant 1 unit on Player every hand with even-money 1:1 settlement and zero vig breakage (Constant-Unit Baseline).

FPLS160 Cumulative Action
160.0u wagered

160 hands × 1.00u average stake multiplier.

FPLS160 Expected Cost (EV)
-1.98u

Linear expectation across 160.0u action at 1.2351% Player edge.

FPLS160 Session Dispersion
±12.03u SD

Volatility envelope over 160 deals against a 50u bankroll.

FPLS160 Survival / Ruin Split
91.5% / 8.5%

Eliminates 5% commission accounting at the cost of a 1.2351% house edge per unit staked.

FPLS160 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

Flat Player (FPLS160) Over 160 Hands With a 50-Unit Bankroll

[FPLS160-MECHANICS] Staking protocol FPLS160 applies Flat Betting Player (1u Constant) (1-1-1-1-1) on Player across 160 hands with a 50-unit stop-loss. Wagers a constant 1 unit on Player every hand with even-money 1:1 settlement and zero vig breakage. Back-to-back two-shoe floor session testing progression endurance under a 50-unit stop-loss.

[FPLS160-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, FPLS160 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.2351% Player house edge: multiplying 160.0u cumulative action by −1.2351% locks in −1.98u expected drift with ±12.03u standard deviation. Eliminates 5% commission accounting at the cost of a 1.2351% house edge per unit staked. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

FPLS160 CheckpointFPLS160 HandsFPLS160 ActionFPLS160 EV DriftFPLS160 SD Band
FPLS160-Stage-132h [FPLS160]32.0u [FPLS160]-0.40u [FPLS160]±5.38u [FPLS160]
FPLS160-Stage-264h [FPLS160]64.0u [FPLS160]-0.79u [FPLS160]±7.61u [FPLS160]
FPLS160-Stage-396h [FPLS160]96.0u [FPLS160]-1.19u [FPLS160]±9.32u [FPLS160]
FPLS160-Stage-4128h [FPLS160]128.0u [FPLS160]-1.58u [FPLS160]±10.76u [FPLS160]
FPLS160-Stage-5160h [FPLS160]160.0u [FPLS160]-1.98u [FPLS160]±12.03u [FPLS160]
  • FPLS160 step sequence: 1-1-1-1-1 (1.00u mean bet size across 160 hands).
  • FPLS160 bankroll boundary: 50u starting stack faces 8.5% ruin risk and 91.5% survival probability.
  • FPLS160 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on BBBBPPPP never change the −1.98u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning Flat Player over 160 hands with 50 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in FPLS160 faces the same 1.2351% Player house edge; scaling bet sizes to 160.0u total action scales expected cost to −1.98u while reshaping variance (±12.03u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android