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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · S1235S160

1-2-3-5 Staircase Sequence — 160-Hand Two-Shoe Session (50u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[S1235S160] Steps up 1u, 2u, 3u, 5u on consecutive wins (+11u on four wins) and resets immediately to 1u on any loss. Across 160-Hand Two-Shoe Session (50u Bankroll) (Back-to-back two-shoe floor session testing progression endurance under a 50-unit stop-loss), staking 1-2-3-5 Staircase on Player (1.2351% house edge) generates 243.2 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −3.00 units, ±18.29 units of standard deviation, and a 87.1% session survival rate (12.9% bankroll ruin risk).

S1235S160 Action
243.2u
S1235S160 Expected EV
-3.00u
S1235S160 Session SD
±18.29u
S1235S160 Survival
87.1%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B P B B P P B P B P B B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = = ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠

S1235S160 (1-2-3-5 Staircase · 160H / 50u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter S1235S160 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

S1235S160 Staking Sequence
1-2-3-5

Steps up 1u, 2u, 3u, 5u on consecutive wins (+11u on four wins) and resets immediately to 1u on any loss (Stepped Positive Progression).

S1235S160 Cumulative Action
243.2u wagered

160 hands × 1.52u average stake multiplier.

S1235S160 Expected Cost (EV)
-3.00u

Linear expectation across 243.2u action at 1.2351% Player edge.

S1235S160 Session Dispersion
±18.29u SD

Volatility envelope over 160 deals against a 50u bankroll.

S1235S160 Survival / Ruin Split
87.1% / 12.9%

Smooths out step-2 exposure (2u instead of 3u in 1-3-2-6), lowering two-hand variance across short 50-to-80 hand sessions.

S1235S160 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

1-2-3-5 Staircase (S1235S160) Over 160 Hands With a 50-Unit Bankroll

[S1235S160-MECHANICS] Staking protocol S1235S160 applies 1-2-3-5 Staircase Sequence (1-2-3-5) on Player across 160 hands with a 50-unit stop-loss. Steps up 1u, 2u, 3u, 5u on consecutive wins (+11u on four wins) and resets immediately to 1u on any loss. Back-to-back two-shoe floor session testing progression endurance under a 50-unit stop-loss.

[S1235S160-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, S1235S160 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.2351% Player house edge: multiplying 243.2u cumulative action by −1.2351% locks in −3.00u expected drift with ±18.29u standard deviation. Smooths out step-2 exposure (2u instead of 3u in 1-3-2-6), lowering two-hand variance across short 50-to-80 hand sessions. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

S1235S160 CheckpointS1235S160 HandsS1235S160 ActionS1235S160 EV DriftS1235S160 SD Band
S1235S160-Stage-132h [S1235S160]48.6u [S1235S160]-0.60u [S1235S160]±8.18u [S1235S160]
S1235S160-Stage-264h [S1235S160]97.3u [S1235S160]-1.20u [S1235S160]±11.57u [S1235S160]
S1235S160-Stage-396h [S1235S160]145.9u [S1235S160]-1.80u [S1235S160]±14.17u [S1235S160]
S1235S160-Stage-4128h [S1235S160]194.6u [S1235S160]-2.40u [S1235S160]±16.36u [S1235S160]
S1235S160-Stage-5160h [S1235S160]243.2u [S1235S160]-3.00u [S1235S160]±18.29u [S1235S160]
  • S1235S160 step sequence: 1-2-3-5 (1.52u mean bet size across 160 hands).
  • S1235S160 bankroll boundary: 50u starting stack faces 12.9% ruin risk and 87.1% survival probability.
  • S1235S160 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on BBPPBPBP never change the −3.00u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning 1-2-3-5 Staircase over 160 hands with 50 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in S1235S160 faces the same 1.2351% Player house edge; scaling bet sizes to 243.2u total action scales expected cost to −3.00u while reshaping variance (±18.29u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android