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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · MMRS500

Mini Martingale (1-2-4 Capped) — 500-Hand High-Limit Marathon (200u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[MMRS500] Doubles through at most three steps (1u, 2u, 4u) and forcibly resets to 1u after a third consecutive loss. Across 500-Hand High-Limit Marathon (200u Bankroll) (Six-shoe salon marathon exposing long-run house-edge drift against a 200-unit reserve), staking Mini Martingale on Banker (1.0579% house edge) generates 860.0 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −9.10 units, ±35.67 units of standard deviation, and a 87.2% session survival rate (12.8% bankroll ruin risk).

MMRS500 Action
860.0u
MMRS500 Expected EV
-9.10u
MMRS500 Session SD
±35.67u
MMRS500 Survival
87.2%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B P P B P P B B B P B P B B P P
Big Eye Boy ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠

MMRS500 (Mini Martingale · 500H / 200u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter MMRS500 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

MMRS500 Staking Sequence
1-2-4-reset

Doubles through at most three steps (1u, 2u, 4u) and forcibly resets to 1u after a third consecutive loss (Capped Negative Progression).

MMRS500 Cumulative Action
860.0u wagered

500 hands × 1.72u average stake multiplier.

MMRS500 Expected Cost (EV)
-9.10u

Linear expectation across 860.0u action at 1.0579% Banker edge.

MMRS500 Session Dispersion
±35.67u SD

Volatility envelope over 500 deals against a 200u bankroll.

MMRS500 Survival / Ruin Split
87.2% / 12.8%

Caps single-sequence drawdown at 7 units while accepting periodic 7-unit stop-loss resets when three adverse decisions occur in a row.

MMRS500 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

Mini Martingale (MMRS500) Over 500 Hands With a 200-Unit Bankroll

[MMRS500-MECHANICS] Staking protocol MMRS500 applies Mini Martingale (1-2-4 Capped) (1-2-4-reset) on Banker across 500 hands with a 200-unit stop-loss. Doubles through at most three steps (1u, 2u, 4u) and forcibly resets to 1u after a third consecutive loss. Six-shoe salon marathon exposing long-run house-edge drift against a 200-unit reserve.

[MMRS500-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, MMRS500 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.0579% Banker house edge: multiplying 860.0u cumulative action by −1.0579% locks in −9.10u expected drift with ±35.67u standard deviation. Caps single-sequence drawdown at 7 units while accepting periodic 7-unit stop-loss resets when three adverse decisions occur in a row. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

MMRS500 CheckpointMMRS500 HandsMMRS500 ActionMMRS500 EV DriftMMRS500 SD Band
MMRS500-Stage-1100h [MMRS500]172.0u [MMRS500]-1.82u [MMRS500]±15.95u [MMRS500]
MMRS500-Stage-2200h [MMRS500]344.0u [MMRS500]-3.64u [MMRS500]±22.56u [MMRS500]
MMRS500-Stage-3300h [MMRS500]516.0u [MMRS500]-5.46u [MMRS500]±27.63u [MMRS500]
MMRS500-Stage-4400h [MMRS500]688.0u [MMRS500]-7.28u [MMRS500]±31.90u [MMRS500]
MMRS500-Stage-5500h [MMRS500]860.0u [MMRS500]-9.10u [MMRS500]±35.67u [MMRS500]
  • MMRS500 step sequence: 1-2-4-reset (1.72u mean bet size across 500 hands).
  • MMRS500 bankroll boundary: 200u starting stack faces 12.8% ruin risk and 87.2% survival probability.
  • MMRS500 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on PPBPPBPP never change the −9.10u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning Mini Martingale over 500 hands with 200 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in MMRS500 faces the same 1.0579% Banker house edge; scaling bet sizes to 860.0u total action scales expected cost to −9.10u while reshaping variance (±35.67u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android