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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · PRLS500

Paroli 3-Step Press (1-2-4) — 500-Hand High-Limit Marathon (200u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[PRLS500] Doubles the stake after each win for up to three consecutive wins (1u, 2u, 4u) before locking in 7u net gain and resetting to 1u. Across 500-Hand High-Limit Marathon (200u Bankroll) (Six-shoe salon marathon exposing long-run house-edge drift against a 200-unit reserve), staking Paroli 1-2-4 on Player (1.2351% house edge) generates 790.0 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −9.76 units, ±33.60 units of standard deviation, and a 86.9% session survival rate (13.1% bankroll ruin risk).

PRLS500 Action
790.0u
PRLS500 Expected EV
-9.76u
PRLS500 Session SD
±33.60u
PRLS500 Survival
86.9%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B P B B P P B P B P B B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = = ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠

PRLS500 (Paroli 1-2-4 · 500H / 200u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter PRLS500 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

PRLS500 Staking Sequence
1-2-4-collect

Doubles the stake after each win for up to three consecutive wins (1u, 2u, 4u) before locking in 7u net gain and resetting to 1u (Positive Progression Press).

PRLS500 Cumulative Action
790.0u wagered

500 hands × 1.58u average stake multiplier.

PRLS500 Expected Cost (EV)
-9.76u

Linear expectation across 790.0u action at 1.2351% Player edge.

PRLS500 Session Dispersion
±33.60u SD

Volatility envelope over 500 deals against a 200u bankroll.

PRLS500 Survival / Ruin Split
86.9% / 13.1%

Protects starting capital by risking only 1 fresh unit per cycle while converting 12.0% three-win clusters into +7u bursts.

PRLS500 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

Paroli 1-2-4 (PRLS500) Over 500 Hands With a 200-Unit Bankroll

[PRLS500-MECHANICS] Staking protocol PRLS500 applies Paroli 3-Step Press (1-2-4) (1-2-4-collect) on Player across 500 hands with a 200-unit stop-loss. Doubles the stake after each win for up to three consecutive wins (1u, 2u, 4u) before locking in 7u net gain and resetting to 1u. Six-shoe salon marathon exposing long-run house-edge drift against a 200-unit reserve.

[PRLS500-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, PRLS500 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.2351% Player house edge: multiplying 790.0u cumulative action by −1.2351% locks in −9.76u expected drift with ±33.60u standard deviation. Protects starting capital by risking only 1 fresh unit per cycle while converting 12.0% three-win clusters into +7u bursts. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

PRLS500 CheckpointPRLS500 HandsPRLS500 ActionPRLS500 EV DriftPRLS500 SD Band
PRLS500-Stage-1100h [PRLS500]158.0u [PRLS500]-1.95u [PRLS500]±15.03u [PRLS500]
PRLS500-Stage-2200h [PRLS500]316.0u [PRLS500]-3.90u [PRLS500]±21.25u [PRLS500]
PRLS500-Stage-3300h [PRLS500]474.0u [PRLS500]-5.85u [PRLS500]±26.03u [PRLS500]
PRLS500-Stage-4400h [PRLS500]632.0u [PRLS500]-7.81u [PRLS500]±30.06u [PRLS500]
PRLS500-Stage-5500h [PRLS500]790.0u [PRLS500]-9.76u [PRLS500]±33.60u [PRLS500]
  • PRLS500 step sequence: 1-2-4-collect (1.58u mean bet size across 500 hands).
  • PRLS500 bankroll boundary: 200u starting stack faces 13.1% ruin risk and 86.9% survival probability.
  • PRLS500 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on BBPPBPBP never change the −9.76u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning Paroli 1-2-4 over 500 hands with 200 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in PRLS500 faces the same 1.2351% Player house edge; scaling bet sizes to 790.0u total action scales expected cost to −9.76u while reshaping variance (±33.60u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android