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NOTABLE SHOE #17 · 14.08% TIE VARIANCE OUTLIER

High-Tie 14% Frequency Outlier Shoe: 71-Hand Variance Audit & Tie Paytable Reality

10 Ties in 71 Hands (14.08% vs. 9.52% Theoretical Baseline): across 71 verified 8-deck hands (36 Banker, 26 Player, 9 Tie), this shoe forms 32 Big Road columns spanning 32 display columns, generating 59 Big Eye Boy marks (29R/30B), 58 Small Road marks (23R/35B), and 57 Cockroach Pig marks (22R/35B).

Total Verified Hands
71
Outcome Distribution
36B / 26P / 9T
Longest Streaks
4B · 3P
Big Road Columns
32 Cols
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 71 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B P B P P B B P P B B B P B P B P P P B B P B B B P P B P P B B B P B P P B B B B P B P P P P B B B B P P
Big Eye Boy ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ =
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ =
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

SHOE-1A-17: 71 hands (36B / 26P / 9T) — max streaks 4B & 3P across 32 logical columns.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Across Tie-Slashed Columns

This bead is at Row 2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 3.
  2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 3 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Depth Continuity

This bead is at Row 2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 3.
  2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 3 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Slash Verification

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

SHOE-1A-17 Hand & Outcome Breakdown
71 Hands (36 Banker / 26 Player / 9 Tie)

Deterministic seed 104117 — 58.06% Banker share of decided hands.

SHOE-1A-17 Peak Streak & Column Span
Max 4B / Max 3P Across 32 Logical Columns (32 Display Cols)

Phenomenon: 10 Ties in 71 Hands (14.08% vs. 9.52% Theoretical Baseline).

SHOE-1A-17 Big Eye Boy Split (Lookback 1)
59 Marks: 29 Red (=) / 30 Blue (≠) Across 32 Display Cols

Featured mark: This bead is at Row 2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

SHOE-1A-17 Small Road & Cockroach Pig Split
SR: 23R/35B (58) · CP: 22R/35B (57)

Verified by calculateAllRoads() on SHOE-1A-17.

SHOE-1A-17 Hand #72 Next-Hand Probe
If B → BEB blue, SR blue, CP blue | If P → BEB red, SR red, CP red

Computed via getNextRoadPredictions() at the end of the shoe.

SHOE-1A-17 PHENOMENON ANALYSIS

How 10 Ties in 71 Hands (14.08% vs. 9.52% Theoretical Baseline) Develops on the Scoreboard

Over millions of 8-deck shoes, Ties settle at 9.5156% (about 6.8 Ties in a 71-hand shoe). However, standard binomial variance means that roughly 1 in 8 shoes produces 10 or more Ties. This 71-hand shoe records 10 Ties (14.08%) spread across the Big Road.

Every one of those 10 Ties pushes active Banker and Player main bets (returning the bettor's stake) and adds a green slash to the current Big Road bead. Because 61 decided hands remain (34 Banker, 27 Player), the Big Road and derived roads develop a full 26-column board.

Opening 8 Big Road Columns of SHOE-1A-17 (10 Ties in 71 Hands (14.08% vs. 9.52% Theoretical Baseline))
Logical ColumnWinning SideColumn DepthAttached Ties6-Row Grid Placement
Col 1 (SHOE-1A-17)Banker (B)2 beads1 tie slashEnds at Row 2
Col 2 (SHOE-1A-17)Player (P)1 bead0 tiesEnds at Row 1
Col 3 (SHOE-1A-17)Banker (B)1 bead0 tiesEnds at Row 1
Col 4 (SHOE-1A-17)Player (P)2 beads0 tiesEnds at Row 2
Col 5 (SHOE-1A-17)Banker (B)3 beads1 tie slashEnds at Row 3
Col 6 (SHOE-1A-17)Player (P)3 beads1 tie slashEnds at Row 3
Col 7 (SHOE-1A-17)Banker (B)4 beads1 tie slashEnds at Row 4
Col 8 (SHOE-1A-17)Player (P)1 bead0 tiesEnds at Row 1
  • SHOE-1A-17 Verified Mark #1 (Big Eye Boy Across Tie-Slashed Columns): This bead is at Row 2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).
  • SHOE-1A-17 Verified Mark #2 (Small Road Depth Continuity): This bead is at Row 2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).
  • SHOE-1A-17 Verified Mark #3 (Cockroach Pig Slash Verification): This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).
DERIVED-ROAD & NEXT-HAND PROBE AUDIT (SHOE-1A-17)

Derived-Road Takeaways & Hand #72 Prediction Table for SHOE-1A-17

Even when a single shoe runs hot on Ties at 14.08%, the next hand in an 8-deck shoe still carries an expected ~9.52% Tie probability—well below the 11.11% break-even threshold required for an 8:1 payout.

If a hypothetical Hand #72 were dealt at the end of SHOE-1A-17, getNextRoadPredictions() shows that a Banker win would produce Big Eye Boy BLUE, Small Road BLUE, and Cockroach Pig BLUE, whereas a Player win would produce Big Eye Boy RED, Small Road RED, and Cockroach Pig RED. Remember that each hand in an 8-deck shoe is independent of prior outcomes.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen a shoe has already produced 9 or 10 Ties, the deck is 'rich in Tie cards' so betting Tie 8:1 becomes favorable.
TruthTie is the least sensitive bet to normal shoe depletion; at 8:1 payout its baseline house edge is 14.36%, and past Ties in the shoe do not make the next Tie more likely.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android