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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · FPLS500

Flat Betting Player (1u Constant) — 500-Hand High-Limit Marathon (200u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[FPLS500] Wagers a constant 1 unit on Player every hand with even-money 1:1 settlement and zero vig breakage. Across 500-Hand High-Limit Marathon (200u Bankroll) (Six-shoe salon marathon exposing long-run house-edge drift against a 200-unit reserve), staking Flat Player on Player (1.2351% house edge) generates 500.0 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −6.18 units, ±21.27 units of standard deviation, and a 91.7% session survival rate (8.3% bankroll ruin risk).

FPLS500 Action
500.0u
FPLS500 Expected EV
-6.18u
FPLS500 Session SD
±21.27u
FPLS500 Survival
91.7%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P B B P B B P P P P B B P P B P
Big Eye Boy ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠
Small Road = = = = = ≠ = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠

FPLS500 (Flat Player · 500H / 200u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter FPLS500 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

FPLS500 Staking Sequence
1-1-1-1-1

Wagers a constant 1 unit on Player every hand with even-money 1:1 settlement and zero vig breakage (Constant-Unit Baseline).

FPLS500 Cumulative Action
500.0u wagered

500 hands × 1.00u average stake multiplier.

FPLS500 Expected Cost (EV)
-6.18u

Linear expectation across 500.0u action at 1.2351% Player edge.

FPLS500 Session Dispersion
±21.27u SD

Volatility envelope over 500 deals against a 200u bankroll.

FPLS500 Survival / Ruin Split
91.7% / 8.3%

Eliminates 5% commission accounting at the cost of a 1.2351% house edge per unit staked.

FPLS500 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

Flat Player (FPLS500) Over 500 Hands With a 200-Unit Bankroll

[FPLS500-MECHANICS] Staking protocol FPLS500 applies Flat Betting Player (1u Constant) (1-1-1-1-1) on Player across 500 hands with a 200-unit stop-loss. Wagers a constant 1 unit on Player every hand with even-money 1:1 settlement and zero vig breakage. Six-shoe salon marathon exposing long-run house-edge drift against a 200-unit reserve.

[FPLS500-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, FPLS500 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.2351% Player house edge: multiplying 500.0u cumulative action by −1.2351% locks in −6.18u expected drift with ±21.27u standard deviation. Eliminates 5% commission accounting at the cost of a 1.2351% house edge per unit staked. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

FPLS500 CheckpointFPLS500 HandsFPLS500 ActionFPLS500 EV DriftFPLS500 SD Band
FPLS500-Stage-1100h [FPLS500]100.0u [FPLS500]-1.24u [FPLS500]±9.51u [FPLS500]
FPLS500-Stage-2200h [FPLS500]200.0u [FPLS500]-2.47u [FPLS500]±13.45u [FPLS500]
FPLS500-Stage-3300h [FPLS500]300.0u [FPLS500]-3.71u [FPLS500]±16.47u [FPLS500]
FPLS500-Stage-4400h [FPLS500]400.0u [FPLS500]-4.94u [FPLS500]±19.02u [FPLS500]
FPLS500-Stage-5500h [FPLS500]500.0u [FPLS500]-6.18u [FPLS500]±21.27u [FPLS500]
  • FPLS500 step sequence: 1-1-1-1-1 (1.00u mean bet size across 500 hands).
  • FPLS500 bankroll boundary: 200u starting stack faces 8.3% ruin risk and 91.7% survival probability.
  • FPLS500 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on BBPBBPBB never change the −6.18u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning Flat Player over 500 hands with 200 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in FPLS500 faces the same 1.2351% Player house edge; scaling bet sizes to 500.0u total action scales expected cost to −6.18u while reshaping variance (±21.27u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android