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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · DALS160

D'Alembert Arithmetic (+1u / -1u) — 160-Hand Two-Shoe Session (50u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[DALS160] Increases the wager by +1 unit after a loss and reduces the wager by −1 unit (minimum 1u) after a win. Across 160-Hand Two-Shoe Session (50u Bankroll) (Back-to-back two-shoe floor session testing progression endurance under a 50-unit stop-loss), staking D'Alembert on Player (1.2351% house edge) generates 339.2 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −4.19 units, ±25.51 units of standard deviation, and a 81.9% session survival rate (18.1% bankroll ruin risk).

DALS160 Action
339.2u
DALS160 Expected EV
-4.19u
DALS160 Session SD
±25.51u
DALS160 Survival
81.9%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P P B B B P P P B B B P B P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = = = = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = = =
Cockroach Pig = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = =

DALS160 (D'Alembert · 160H / 50u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter DALS160 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DALS160 Staking Sequence
1-2-3-4-5-4-3

Increases the wager by +1 unit after a loss and reduces the wager by −1 unit (minimum 1u) after a win (Arithmetic Negative Progression).

DALS160 Cumulative Action
339.2u wagered

160 hands × 2.12u average stake multiplier.

DALS160 Expected Cost (EV)
-4.19u

Linear expectation across 339.2u action at 1.2351% Player edge.

DALS160 Session Dispersion
±25.51u SD

Volatility envelope over 160 deals against a 50u bankroll.

DALS160 Survival / Ruin Split
81.9% / 18.1%

Avoids exponential bet explosions but drifts into elevated 5u–10u flat exposure when Player losses outnumber wins over 50+ deals.

DALS160 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

D'Alembert (DALS160) Over 160 Hands With a 50-Unit Bankroll

[DALS160-MECHANICS] Staking protocol DALS160 applies D'Alembert Arithmetic (+1u / -1u) (1-2-3-4-5-4-3) on Player across 160 hands with a 50-unit stop-loss. Increases the wager by +1 unit after a loss and reduces the wager by −1 unit (minimum 1u) after a win. Back-to-back two-shoe floor session testing progression endurance under a 50-unit stop-loss.

[DALS160-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, DALS160 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.2351% Player house edge: multiplying 339.2u cumulative action by −1.2351% locks in −4.19u expected drift with ±25.51u standard deviation. Avoids exponential bet explosions but drifts into elevated 5u–10u flat exposure when Player losses outnumber wins over 50+ deals. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

DALS160 CheckpointDALS160 HandsDALS160 ActionDALS160 EV DriftDALS160 SD Band
DALS160-Stage-132h [DALS160]67.8u [DALS160]-0.84u [DALS160]±11.41u [DALS160]
DALS160-Stage-264h [DALS160]135.7u [DALS160]-1.68u [DALS160]±16.13u [DALS160]
DALS160-Stage-396h [DALS160]203.5u [DALS160]-2.51u [DALS160]±19.76u [DALS160]
DALS160-Stage-4128h [DALS160]271.4u [DALS160]-3.35u [DALS160]±22.81u [DALS160]
DALS160-Stage-5160h [DALS160]339.2u [DALS160]-4.19u [DALS160]±25.51u [DALS160]
  • DALS160 step sequence: 1-2-3-4-5-4-3 (2.12u mean bet size across 160 hands).
  • DALS160 bankroll boundary: 50u starting stack faces 18.1% ruin risk and 81.9% survival probability.
  • DALS160 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on PPPBBBPP never change the −4.19u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning D'Alembert over 160 hands with 50 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in DALS160 faces the same 1.2351% Player house edge; scaling bet sizes to 339.2u total action scales expected cost to −4.19u while reshaping variance (±25.51u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android