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PROGRESSION SURVIVAL AUDIT · CDLS500

Contra D'Alembert (+1u Win / -1u Loss) — 500-Hand High-Limit Marathon (200u Bankroll) Survival & Ruin Proof

[CDLS500] Adds +1 unit after each winning decision and subtracts −1 unit (down to 1u floor) after each loss. Across 500-Hand High-Limit Marathon (200u Bankroll) (Six-shoe salon marathon exposing long-run house-edge drift against a 200-unit reserve), staking Contra D'Alembert on Banker (1.0579% house edge) generates 890.0 units of cumulative action, an expected mathematical cost of −9.42 units, ±36.91 units of standard deviation, and a 86.8% session survival rate (13.2% bankroll ruin risk).

CDLS500 Action
890.0u
CDLS500 Expected EV
-9.42u
CDLS500 Session SD
±36.91u
CDLS500 Survival
86.8%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P P B B P B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠

CDLS500 (Contra D'Alembert · 500H / 200u) scoreboard sample. Derived-road red/blue marks never alter CDLS500 progression expectation.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

CDLS500 Staking Sequence
1-2-3-4-3-2-1

Adds +1 unit after each winning decision and subtracts −1 unit (down to 1u floor) after each loss (Arithmetic Positive Progression).

CDLS500 Cumulative Action
890.0u wagered

500 hands × 1.78u average stake multiplier.

CDLS500 Expected Cost (EV)
-9.42u

Linear expectation across 890.0u action at 1.0579% Banker edge.

CDLS500 Session Dispersion
±36.91u SD

Volatility envelope over 500 deals against a 200u bankroll.

CDLS500 Survival / Ruin Split
86.8% / 13.2%

Scales exposure gradually during Banker clusters while keeping maximum drawdown far below geometric doubling plans.

CDLS500 STOCHASTIC HORIZON

Contra D'Alembert (CDLS500) Over 500 Hands With a 200-Unit Bankroll

[CDLS500-MECHANICS] Staking protocol CDLS500 applies Contra D'Alembert (+1u Win / -1u Loss) (1-2-3-4-3-2-1) on Banker across 500 hands with a 200-unit stop-loss. Adds +1 unit after each winning decision and subtracts −1 unit (down to 1u floor) after each loss. Six-shoe salon marathon exposing long-run house-edge drift against a 200-unit reserve.

[CDLS500-EXPECTATION] By linearity of expectation, CDLS500 cannot alter the 8-deck 1.0579% Banker house edge: multiplying 890.0u cumulative action by −1.0579% locks in −9.42u expected drift with ±36.91u standard deviation. Scales exposure gradually during Banker clusters while keeping maximum drawdown far below geometric doubling plans. Remember that baccarat is an 18+ / 21+ game of chance; review /legal/responsible-gambling before setting session limits.

CDLS500 CheckpointCDLS500 HandsCDLS500 ActionCDLS500 EV DriftCDLS500 SD Band
CDLS500-Stage-1100h [CDLS500]178.0u [CDLS500]-1.88u [CDLS500]±16.51u [CDLS500]
CDLS500-Stage-2200h [CDLS500]356.0u [CDLS500]-3.77u [CDLS500]±23.34u [CDLS500]
CDLS500-Stage-3300h [CDLS500]534.0u [CDLS500]-5.65u [CDLS500]±28.59u [CDLS500]
CDLS500-Stage-4400h [CDLS500]712.0u [CDLS500]-7.53u [CDLS500]±33.01u [CDLS500]
CDLS500-Stage-5500h [CDLS500]890.0u [CDLS500]-9.42u [CDLS500]±36.91u [CDLS500]
  • CDLS500 step sequence: 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 (1.78u mean bet size across 500 hands).
  • CDLS500 bankroll boundary: 200u starting stack faces 13.2% ruin risk and 86.8% survival probability.
  • CDLS500 road independence: Big Eye Boy and Small Road patterns on PPBBPPBB never change the −9.42u expected house hold.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythRunning Contra D'Alembert over 500 hands with 200 units changes the mathematical expectation of the shoe.
TruthEvery hand in CDLS500 faces the same 1.0579% Banker house edge; scaling bet sizes to 890.0u total action scales expected cost to −9.42u while reshaping variance (±36.91u SD).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android