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REGIME SHIFT: STREAK TO CHOP · CATALOG ESL40 (SEED 204940)

Early-Streak Late-Chop Shoe ESL40: 71-Hand 8-Deck Scoreboard & Derived-Road Audit

Catalog shoe ESL40 (seed 204940) captures a deep opening streaks decaying into rapid single-hand alternation across the back half across 71 dealt 8-deck hands (34 Banker, 32 Player, 5 Tie). Its 31 logical Big Road columns occupy 31 display columns (C1:3P · C2:3B · C3:1P · C4:5B · C5:5P · C6:7B · C7:1P · C8:1B) and generate 62 Big Eye Boy marks (32R/30B), 59 Small Road marks (27R/32B), and 58 Cockroach Pig marks (31R/27B).

Verified 8-Deck Hands
71 (ESL40)
Outcome Split
34B / 32P / 5T
Peak Streaks
7B · 5P
Big Road Columns
31 Cols
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 71 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

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Big Road P P P B B P B B B B B P P P P B B B B B B P B B P B P B P B P P B P B P P B P P B B B B P B B P P B P P P B B P P P P B P
Big Eye Boy = = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠
Small Road ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ = = = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = = = = = ≠ = = ≠ ≠

ESL40 (seed 204940): 71 hands (34B / 32P / 5T), peak streaks 7B & 5P across 31 logical columns.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
ESL40 Big Eye Boy Entry #6

This bead is at Row 3. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, more than one row above → red (=).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 3.
  2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, more than one row above → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 3 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

ESL40 Small Road Entry #6

Column 4 has 5 beads. Column 2 has 3 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 5 beads. Column 2 has 3 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

ESL40 Cockroach Pig Entry #4

This bead is at Row 5. Column 1 stopped at Row 3, more than one row above → red (=).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 5, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 3, more than one row above → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

ESL40 8-Deck Hand Distribution
71 Hands (34 Banker / 32 Player / 5 Tie)

Seed 204940 opening column signature: C1:3P · C2:3B · C3:1P · C4:5B · C5:5P · C6:7B · C7:1P · C8:1B.

ESL40 Big Road Span & Max Streaks
Max 7B / Max 5P Across 31 Logical Cols (31 Display Cols)

Opening columns fill deep vertical stacks on the left of the Big Road, followed by a wide horizontal march of depth-1 singletons toward the cut card.

ESL40 Big Eye Boy Rule Breakdown
62 Marks (32R / 30B · 51.6% Red across 32 Display Cols)

Rule 1: 29 marks · Rule 2 Case 1: 0 · Case 2: 0 · Case 3: 33.

ESL40 Small Road & Cockroach Pig Tally
SR: 27R/32B (45.8% Red) · CP: 31R/27B (53.4% Red)

As the deep opening columns give way to depth-1 singletons, Rule 1 initially flashes Blue (≠) against the deep lookback columns and then stabilizes into solid Rule 1 Red (=) once all lookbacks are depth 1.

ESL40 Hand #72 Next-Hand Probe
If B → BEB red, SR blue, CP blue | If P → BEB blue, SR red, CP red

Computed by getNextRoadPredictions() after Hand #71 of ESL40.

ESL40 COLUMN GEOMETRY (EARLY-STREAK-LATE-CHOP)

ESL40 Scoreboard Structure: C1:3P · C2:3B · C3:1P · C4:5B · C5:5P · C6:7B · C7:1P · C8:1B

In catalog shoe ESL40 (seed 204940), 71 total hands resolve into 34 Banker wins, 32 Player wins, and 5 Ties across 31 logical columns (C1:3P · C2:3B · C3:1P · C4:5B · C5:5P · C6:7B · C7:1P · C8:1B). Opening columns fill deep vertical stacks on the left of the Big Road, followed by a wide horizontal march of depth-1 singletons toward the cut card.

Tracking ESL40 column by column shows peak runs of 7B and 5P spreading across 31 Big Road display columns: ESL40 records 29 Rule 1 new-column checks, 0 Rule 2 Case 1 covered-row checks, 0 Rule 2 Case 2 one-past-bottom breaks, and 33 Rule 2 Case 3 deep-tail checks.

Opening 10 Big Road Columns of ESL40 (Seed 204940)
Column & SpanBeadsRunning TallyGrid StopDepth Pair
ESL40-C01 (H1–H3)3P (PPP) [ESL40]0B/3P (+0T @ESL40-C1)ESL40 Row3 Stop (Col1)NextColVsESL40-C1: 3v3
ESL40-C02 (H4–H7)3B (BBB) [ESL40]3B/3P (+1T @ESL40-C2)ESL40 Row3 Stop (Col2)NextColVsESL40-C1: 3v3
ESL40-C03 (H8–H8)1P (P) [ESL40]3B/4P (+0T @ESL40-C3)ESL40 Row1 Stop (Col3)NextColVsESL40-C2: 1v3
ESL40-C04 (H9–H13)5B (BBBBB) [ESL40]8B/4P (+0T @ESL40-C4)ESL40 Row5 Stop (Col4)NextColVsESL40-C3: 5v1
ESL40-C05 (H14–H19)5P (PPPPP) [ESL40]8B/9P (+1T @ESL40-C5)ESL40 Row5 Stop (Col5)NextColVsESL40-C4: 5v5
ESL40-C06 (H20–H26)7B (BBBBBB) [ESL40]15B/9P (+0T @ESL40-C6)ESL40 Row6 Tail +1RightNextColVsESL40-C5: 7v5
ESL40-C07 (H27–H27)1P (P) [ESL40]15B/10P (+0T @ESL40-C7)ESL40 Row1 Stop (Col7)NextColVsESL40-C6: 1v7
ESL40-C08 (H28–H28)1B (B) [ESL40]16B/10P (+0T @ESL40-C8)ESL40 Row1 Stop (Col8)NextColVsESL40-C7: 1v1
ESL40-C09 (H29–H29)1P (P) [ESL40]16B/11P (+0T @ESL40-C9)ESL40 Row1 Stop (Col9)NextColVsESL40-C8: 1v1
ESL40-C10 (H30–H32)2B (BB) [ESL40]18B/11P (+1T @ESL40-C10)ESL40 Row2 Stop (Col10)NextColVsESL40-C9: 2v1
  • ESL40 BEB #6 (RED): verified at ESL40 lookback-1 index 5 (32R/30B total).
  • ESL40 SR #6 (BLUE): verified at ESL40 lookback-2 index 5 (27R/32B total).
  • ESL40 CP #4 (RED): verified at ESL40 lookback-3 index 3 (31R/27B total).
ESL40 DERIVED-ROAD & CUT-CARD PROBE

ESL40 Lookback Split (32R/30B BEB · 27R/32B SR · 31R/27B CP)

As the deep opening columns give way to depth-1 singletons, Rule 1 initially flashes Blue (≠) against the deep lookback columns and then stabilizes into solid Rule 1 Red (=) once all lookbacks are depth 1. Across ESL40, Big Eye Boy prints 32 Red (51.6%) and 30 Blue marks, Small Road prints 27 Red (45.8%) and 32 Blue marks, and Cockroach Pig prints 31 Red (53.4%) and 27 Blue marks.

At the ESL40 cut card after Hand #71, probing Hand #72 via getNextRoadPredictions() yields Banker → BEB RED / SR BLUE / CP BLUE and Player → BEB BLUE / SR RED / CP RED for ESL40.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythDeep opening columns in ESL40 mean multi-hand streaks will dominate all the way to the cut card.
TruthOpening streaks in ESL40 reflect only the cards already dealt; the second half transitions into depth-1 alternation that locks Rule 1 into Red (=).
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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
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