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REGIME SHIFT: STREAK TO CHOP · CATALOG ESL11 (SEED 204911)

Early-Streak Late-Chop Shoe ESL11: 70-Hand 8-Deck Scoreboard & Derived-Road Audit

Catalog shoe ESL11 (seed 204911) captures a deep opening streaks decaying into rapid single-hand alternation across the back half across 70 dealt 8-deck hands (36 Banker, 28 Player, 6 Tie). Its 31 logical Big Road columns occupy 31 display columns (C1:3B · C2:1P · C3:6B · C4:4P · C5:6B · C6:1P · C7:1B · C8:1P) and generate 60 Big Eye Boy marks (25R/35B), 59 Small Road marks (29R/30B), and 53 Cockroach Pig marks (31R/22B).

Verified 8-Deck Hands
70 (ESL11)
Outcome Split
36B / 28P / 6T
Peak Streaks
6B · 4P
Big Road Columns
31 Cols
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 70 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

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Big Road B B P B B B B B P P P P B B B B B P B P B B P B B P P B P B P P B B B P B B P P B P P B B B P B B P P P P B P P P B
Big Eye Boy ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ = = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Small Road = = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = = = = ≠ = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = = =

ESL11 (seed 204911): 70 hands (36B / 28P / 6T), peak streaks 6B & 4P across 31 logical columns.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
ESL11 Big Eye Boy Entry #7

Column 3 has 6 beads. Column 2 has 1 bead. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 2, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 3 has 6 beads. Column 2 has 1 bead. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

ESL11 Small Road Entry #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 has a bead at Row 3 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

ESL11 Cockroach Pig Entry #3

This bead is at Row 4. Column 1 stopped at Row 3, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 4, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 3, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

ESL11 8-Deck Hand Distribution
70 Hands (36 Banker / 28 Player / 6 Tie)

Seed 204911 opening column signature: C1:3B · C2:1P · C3:6B · C4:4P · C5:6B · C6:1P · C7:1B · C8:1P.

ESL11 Big Road Span & Max Streaks
Max 6B / Max 4P Across 31 Logical Cols (31 Display Cols)

Opening columns fill deep vertical stacks on the left of the Big Road, followed by a wide horizontal march of depth-1 singletons toward the cut card.

ESL11 Big Eye Boy Rule Breakdown
60 Marks (25R / 35B · 41.7% Red across 29 Display Cols)

Rule 1: 29 marks · Rule 2 Case 1: 0 · Case 2: 0 · Case 3: 31.

ESL11 Small Road & Cockroach Pig Tally
SR: 29R/30B (49.2% Red) · CP: 31R/22B (58.5% Red)

As the deep opening columns give way to depth-1 singletons, Rule 1 initially flashes Blue (≠) against the deep lookback columns and then stabilizes into solid Rule 1 Red (=) once all lookbacks are depth 1.

ESL11 Hand #71 Next-Hand Probe
If B → BEB red, SR blue, CP red | If P → BEB blue, SR red, CP blue

Computed by getNextRoadPredictions() after Hand #70 of ESL11.

ESL11 COLUMN GEOMETRY (EARLY-STREAK-LATE-CHOP)

ESL11 Scoreboard Structure: C1:3B · C2:1P · C3:6B · C4:4P · C5:6B · C6:1P · C7:1B · C8:1P

In catalog shoe ESL11 (seed 204911), 70 total hands resolve into 36 Banker wins, 28 Player wins, and 6 Ties across 31 logical columns (C1:3B · C2:1P · C3:6B · C4:4P · C5:6B · C6:1P · C7:1B · C8:1P). Opening columns fill deep vertical stacks on the left of the Big Road, followed by a wide horizontal march of depth-1 singletons toward the cut card.

Tracking ESL11 column by column shows peak runs of 6B and 4P spreading across 31 Big Road display columns: ESL11 records 29 Rule 1 new-column checks, 0 Rule 2 Case 1 covered-row checks, 0 Rule 2 Case 2 one-past-bottom breaks, and 31 Rule 2 Case 3 deep-tail checks.

Opening 10 Big Road Columns of ESL11 (Seed 204911)
Column & SpanBeadsRunning TallyGrid StopDepth Pair
ESL11-C01 (H1–H4)3B (BBB) [ESL11]3B/0P (+1T @ESL11-C1)ESL11 Row3 Stop (Col1)NextColVsESL11-C1: 3v3
ESL11-C02 (H5–H5)1P (P) [ESL11]3B/1P (+0T @ESL11-C2)ESL11 Row1 Stop (Col2)NextColVsESL11-C1: 1v3
ESL11-C03 (H6–H12)6B (BBBBBB) [ESL11]9B/1P (+1T @ESL11-C3)ESL11 Row6 Stop (Col3)NextColVsESL11-C2: 6v1
ESL11-C04 (H13–H16)4P (PPPP) [ESL11]9B/5P (+0T @ESL11-C4)ESL11 Row4 Stop (Col4)NextColVsESL11-C3: 4v6
ESL11-C05 (H17–H23)6B (BBBBBB) [ESL11]15B/5P (+1T @ESL11-C5)ESL11 Row6 Stop (Col5)NextColVsESL11-C4: 6v4
ESL11-C06 (H24–H24)1P (P) [ESL11]15B/6P (+0T @ESL11-C6)ESL11 Row1 Stop (Col6)NextColVsESL11-C5: 1v6
ESL11-C07 (H25–H25)1B (B) [ESL11]16B/6P (+0T @ESL11-C7)ESL11 Row1 Stop (Col7)NextColVsESL11-C6: 1v1
ESL11-C08 (H26–H26)1P (P) [ESL11]16B/7P (+0T @ESL11-C8)ESL11 Row1 Stop (Col8)NextColVsESL11-C7: 1v1
ESL11-C09 (H27–H28)2B (BB) [ESL11]18B/7P (+0T @ESL11-C9)ESL11 Row2 Stop (Col9)NextColVsESL11-C8: 2v1
ESL11-C10 (H29–H29)1P (P) [ESL11]18B/8P (+0T @ESL11-C10)ESL11 Row1 Stop (Col10)NextColVsESL11-C9: 1v2
  • ESL11 BEB #7 (BLUE): verified at ESL11 lookback-1 index 6 (25R/35B total).
  • ESL11 SR #2 (RED): verified at ESL11 lookback-2 index 1 (29R/30B total).
  • ESL11 CP #3 (BLUE): verified at ESL11 lookback-3 index 2 (31R/22B total).
ESL11 DERIVED-ROAD & CUT-CARD PROBE

ESL11 Lookback Split (25R/35B BEB · 29R/30B SR · 31R/22B CP)

As the deep opening columns give way to depth-1 singletons, Rule 1 initially flashes Blue (≠) against the deep lookback columns and then stabilizes into solid Rule 1 Red (=) once all lookbacks are depth 1. Across ESL11, Big Eye Boy prints 25 Red (41.7%) and 35 Blue marks, Small Road prints 29 Red (49.2%) and 30 Blue marks, and Cockroach Pig prints 31 Red (58.5%) and 22 Blue marks.

At the ESL11 cut card after Hand #70, probing Hand #71 via getNextRoadPredictions() yields Banker → BEB RED / SR BLUE / CP RED and Player → BEB BLUE / SR RED / CP BLUE for ESL11.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythDeep opening columns in ESL11 mean multi-hand streaks will dominate all the way to the cut card.
TruthOpening streaks in ESL11 reflect only the cards already dealt; the second half transitions into depth-1 alternation that locks Rule 1 into Red (=).
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
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