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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 8D · RANK-9 · 40% DEPTH

8-Deck Nine-Pip Card Depletion at 40% Penetration (4% Audit DEP444)

Removing 15 of 32 Nine-Pip Card (Rank-9) cards at 40% penetration of a 8-deck (416-card) shoe leaves 17 Rank-9 cards inside a 250-card stub (DEP444), producing 45.8592% Banker wins, 44.6252% Player wins, 9.5156% Ties, and a 0.6003% Banker house edge under 4%.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.6003%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2341%
Rank-9 in 250-Card Stub
17/32
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9362
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P P P B B B B P P B B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = ≠ = ≠ = = = = = ≠ = = ≠
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = ≠ = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (PPBBPPPPBBBBPPBBPB) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP444 (8D Rank-9 at 40% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP444)
250 / 416 Cards

40% penetration depth in 8D (eight-deck Macau, Las Vegas Strip, and Singapore standard shoes).

Rank-9 Remaining
17 of 32 Cards

15 9-pip cards (top Natural 9 generator) removed from the 8D pack.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.6003%

Resolved at 45.8592% Banker win rate under 4% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2341%

Resolved at 44.6252% Player win rate with 0.9362 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5156%

Produces a 14.3598% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP444.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP444

How Nine-Pip Card Depletion at 40% Depth Impacts 8D (4% Vig)

Depletion matrix entry DEP444 pairs 8D (416 cards) at 40% penetration with 15 removed Nine-Pip Card cards (17 left in 250 cards), fixing per-hand volatility at 0.9362 and Banker house hold at 0.6003% (4% Vig).

Rank 9 paired with (DEP444) any ten or face card (8D-40%) creates an unbeatable two-card Natural (DEP444·8D-40%) 9 that halts all third-card drawing on both sides. In state DEP444 (8D, 40% depth), each removed Rank-9 card applies a -0.23 bps baseline directional pressure before scaling to the 250-card remainder (17 Rank-9 left), while Winning Banker wagers collect (DEP444-8D) 0.96 units per unit staked (17/32) with 60% of the shoe (DEP444-8D·17/32) still inside the acrylic carrier.

State DEP444 (8D, 40% depth, 17/32 Rank-9 left, 4% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP444 Value8D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP444 Banker (4% Vig)45.8592% (-0.6003% EV)45.8597%DEP444 8D 40% (17 Rank-9)
DEP444 Player (1:1)44.6252% (-1.2341% EV)44.6247%DEP444 250-card 8D stub (0.9362 SD)
DEP444 Tie (8:1)9.5156% (-14.3598% EV)9.5156%DEP444 Rank-9 (15 out, 17 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP444

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP444 · 8D)

Comparing DEP444 (40% 8D depth, 15 Rank-9 removed, 17 remaining in 250 cards) against fresh-shoe baselines shows how finite-stub variance (0.9362 SD) coexists with a 0.6003% 4% Banker house edge.

  • DEP444 (8D 40%): 250/416 cards with 17/32 Rank-9 (6A).
  • DEP444 (Rank-9 split): 45.8592% Banker, 44.6252% Player, 9.5156% Tie in 250 8D cards (6B).
  • DEP444 (4% Vig EV): -0.6003% Banker, -1.2341% Player, -14.3598% Tie, 0.9362 SD at 40% (6C).
  • DEP444 (8D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 17 Rank-9 stub count (6D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 15 Nine-Pip Card cards leave a 8D shoe by 40% depth (DEP444), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-9 stub counts (17/32 in 250 cards); Banker carries a -0.6003% expectation under 4%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android