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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 8D · RANK-8 · 70% DEPTH

8-Deck Eight-Pip Card Depletion at 70% Penetration (5% Audit DEP438)

Removing 26 of 32 Eight-Pip Card (Rank-8) cards at 70% penetration of a 8-deck (416-card) shoe leaves 6 Rank-8 cards inside a 125-card stub (DEP438), producing 45.8576% Banker wins, 44.6268% Player wins, 9.5155% Ties, and a 1.0621% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0621%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2308%
Rank-8 in 125-Card Stub
6/32
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9389
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P P B B P B P B P P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference shoe scoreboard (PPBBBPPPBBPBTBPBPP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP438 (8D Rank-8 at 70% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP438)
125 / 416 Cards

70% penetration depth in 8D (eight-deck Macau, Las Vegas Strip, and Singapore standard shoes).

Rank-8 Remaining
6 of 32 Cards

26 8-pip cards (Natural 8 generator and Banker 3 block) removed from the 8D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0621%

Resolved at 45.8576% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2308%

Resolved at 44.6268% Player win rate with 0.9389 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5155%

Produces a 14.3603% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP438.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP438

How Eight-Pip Card Depletion at 70% Depth Impacts 8D (5% Vig)

Finite-shoe specification DEP438 tracks Rank-8 removal at 70% depth in 8-deck play: with 6 of 32 Eight-Pip Card cards left in the 125-card stub, Tie incidence is 9.5155% and Banker expectation settles at -1.0621% (5% Vig).

Combinatorial weighting in DEP438 (125 cards left from 416 at 70% depth) is governed by two rules: on banker total 3, (dep438) banker draws against every player (8d-70%) third card except 8; removing (dep438·8d-70%) 8s eliminates banker 3's sole standing exception, and with 70% of cards (dep438-8d) dealt and 30% remaining ahead (6/32) of the cut card, winning (dep438-8d·6/32) banker bets pay 0.95 to 1 (-0.50 bps per Rank-8 removed).

State DEP438 (8D, 70% depth, 6/32 Rank-8 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP438 Value8D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP438 Banker (5% Vig)45.8576% (-1.0621% EV)45.8597%DEP438 8D 70% (6 Rank-8)
DEP438 Player (1:1)44.6268% (-1.2308% EV)44.6247%DEP438 125-card 8D stub (0.9389 SD)
DEP438 Tie (8:1)9.5155% (-14.3603% EV)9.5156%DEP438 Rank-8 (26 out, 6 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP438

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP438 · 8D)

Learners auditing DEP438 (8D at 70% depth, 6/32 Rank-8 in 125 stub cards) can verify that 5% house hold (1.0621% Banker, 1.2308% Player, 14.3603% Tie) operates independently of prior Big Road streaks.

  • DEP438 (8D 70%): 125/416 cards with 6/32 Rank-8 (4A).
  • DEP438 (Rank-8 split): 45.8576% Banker, 44.6268% Player, 9.5155% Tie in 125 8D cards (4B).
  • DEP438 (5% Vig EV): -1.0621% Banker, -1.2308% Player, -14.3603% Tie, 0.9389 SD at 70% (4C).
  • DEP438 (8D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 6 Rank-8 stub count (4D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 26 Eight-Pip Card cards leave a 8D shoe by 70% depth (DEP438), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-8 stub counts (6/32 in 125 cards); Banker carries a -1.0621% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android