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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 8D · RANK-3 · 25% DEPTH

8-Deck Three-Pip (Trey) Depletion at 25% Penetration (5% Audit DEP389)

Removing 9 of 32 Three-Pip (Trey) (Rank-3) cards at 25% penetration of a 8-deck (416-card) shoe leaves 23 Rank-3 cards inside a 312-card stub (DEP389), producing 45.8604% Banker wins, 44.6240% Player wins, 9.5156% Ties, and a 1.0566% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0566%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2364%
Rank-3 in 312-Card Stub
23/32
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9329
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P P B B B P P B B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPPBBBPPBPTBPBBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP389 (8D Rank-3 at 25% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP389)
312 / 416 Cards

25% penetration depth in 8D (eight-deck Macau, Las Vegas Strip, and Singapore standard shoes).

Rank-3 Remaining
23 of 32 Cards

9 3-pip cards across all four suits removed from the 8D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0566%

Resolved at 45.8604% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2364%

Resolved at 44.6240% Player win rate with 0.9329 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5156%

Produces a 14.3594% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP389.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP389

How Three-Pip (Trey) Depletion at 25% Depth Impacts 8D (5% Vig)

Removing 9 of 32 Rank-3 cards by the 25% mark of a 8-deck shoe (DEP389, 312 cards left) leaves 23 Three-Pip (Trey) cards and adjusts conditional probabilities to 45.8604% Banker, 44.6240% Player, and 9.5156% Tie under 5%.

Comparing initial 416-card 8D weights against stub DEP389 (312 cards, 25% depth, 23 Rank-3 left) illustrates how banker total 4 draws (dep389) on player third-card 3, and (8d-25%) banker total 5 stands on (dep389·8d-25%) player third-card 3, creating asymmetric sensitivity (+0.65 bps slope, 1.0566% 5% Vig edge).

State DEP389 (8D, 25% depth, 23/32 Rank-3 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP389 Value8D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP389 Banker (5% Vig)45.8604% (-1.0566% EV)45.8597%DEP389 8D 25% (23 Rank-3)
DEP389 Player (1:1)44.6240% (-1.2364% EV)44.6247%DEP389 312-card 8D stub (0.9329 SD)
DEP389 Tie (8:1)9.5156% (-14.3594% EV)9.5156%DEP389 Rank-3 (9 out, 23 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP389

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP389 · 8D)

Even at 25% penetration in DEP389 where 9 Rank-3 cards have exited a 8D shoe (23 left in 312 cards), derived-road red and blue entries measure structural regularity on the Big Road—not whether Banker (-1.0566% EV, 5% Vig) or Player (-1.2364% EV) is favored next.

  • DEP389 (8D 25%): 312/416 cards with 23/32 Rank-3 (4A).
  • DEP389 (Rank-3 split): 45.8604% Banker, 44.6240% Player, 9.5156% Tie in 312 8D cards (4B).
  • DEP389 (5% Vig EV): -1.0566% Banker, -1.2364% Player, -14.3594% Tie, 0.9329 SD at 25% (4C).
  • DEP389 (8D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 23 Rank-3 stub count (4D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 9 Three-Pip (Trey) cards leave a 8D shoe by 25% depth (DEP389), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-3 stub counts (23/32 in 312 cards); Banker carries a -1.0566% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android