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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 6D · ACE-1 · 70% DEPTH

6-Deck Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 70% Penetration (5% Audit DEP285)

Removing 19 of 24 Ace (1-Point Pip) (Ace-1) cards at 70% penetration of a 6-deck (312-card) shoe leaves 5 Ace-1 cards inside a 94-card stub (DEP285), producing 45.8666% Banker wins, 44.5885% Player wins, 9.5449% Ties, and a 1.0153% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0153%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2781%
Ace-1 in 94-Card Stub
5/24
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9368
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B B P P B P B B P P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ =

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPBPBBPPBPBBPPBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP285 (6D Ace-1 at 70% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP285)
94 / 312 Cards

70% penetration depth in 6D (six-deck Mini-Baccarat and Midi-Baccarat North American floors).

Ace-1 Remaining
5 of 24 Cards

19 Ace cards valued at 1 modulo-10 point removed from the 6D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0153%

Resolved at 45.8666% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2781%

Resolved at 44.5885% Player win rate with 0.9368 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5449%

Produces a 14.0955% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP285.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP285

How Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 70% Depth Impacts 6D (5% Vig)

At 70% penetration of a 312-card (6D) shoe, state DEP285 isolates 19 dealt Ace-1 cards (5 remaining inside 94 stub cards), yielding 45.8666% Banker wins, 44.5885% Player wins, and 0.9368 per-hand standard deviation under 5%.

In six-card resolution tree DEP285 (6D at 70% depth, 94 cards left), when fewer aces remain, (dep285-ace-1) player 7 and 8 third-card (94c) transitions from 6 and 7 (dep285-ace-1·94c) occur less often during six-card resolutions; removing 19 of 24 Ace-1 cards (+0.44 bps weight) leaves Banker at -1.0153% EV under 5%.

State DEP285 (6D, 70% depth, 5/24 Ace-1 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP285 Value6D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP285 Banker (5% Vig)45.8666% (-1.0153% EV)45.8648%DEP285 6D 70% (5 Ace-1)
DEP285 Player (1:1)44.5885% (-1.2781% EV)44.5903%DEP285 94-card 6D stub (0.9368 SD)
DEP285 Tie (8:1)9.5449% (-14.0955% EV)9.5449%DEP285 Ace-1 (19 out, 5 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP285

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP285 · 6D)

Comparing DEP285 (70% 6D depth, 19 Ace-1 removed, 5 remaining in 94 cards) against fresh-shoe baselines shows how finite-stub variance (0.9368 SD) coexists with a 1.0153% 5% Banker house edge.

  • DEP285 (6D 70%): 94/312 cards with 5/24 Ace-1 (2A).
  • DEP285 (Ace-1 split): 45.8666% Banker, 44.5885% Player, 9.5449% Tie in 94 6D cards (2B).
  • DEP285 (5% Vig EV): -1.0153% Banker, -1.2781% Player, -14.0955% Tie, 0.9368 SD at 70% (2C).
  • DEP285 (6D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 5 Ace-1 stub count (2D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 19 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards leave a 6D shoe by 70% depth (DEP285), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Ace-1 stub counts (5/24 in 94 cards); Banker carries a -1.0153% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android