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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-9 · 25% DEPTH

4-Deck Nine-Pip Card Depletion at 25% Penetration (5% Audit DEP263)

Removing 5 of 16 Nine-Pip Card (Rank-9) cards at 25% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 11 Rank-9 cards inside a 156-card stub (DEP263), producing 45.8729% Banker wins, 44.5853% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 1.0060% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0060%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2876%
Rank-9 in 156-Card Stub
11/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9347
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P B P B P P B B P P B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠
Small Road = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPBBPBPBPPBBPPBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP263 (4D Rank-9 at 25% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP263)
156 / 208 Cards

25% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-9 Remaining
11 of 16 Cards

5 9-pip cards (top Natural 9 generator) removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0060%

Resolved at 45.8729% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2876%

Resolved at 44.5853% Player win rate with 0.9347 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1239% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP263.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP263

How Nine-Pip Card Depletion at 25% Depth Impacts 4D (5% Vig)

Removing 5 of 16 Rank-9 cards by the 25% mark of a 4-deck shoe (DEP263, 156 cards left) leaves 11 Nine-Pip Card cards and adjusts conditional probabilities to 45.8729% Banker, 44.5853% Player, and 9.5418% Tie under 5%.

In six-card resolution tree DEP263 (4D at 25% depth, 156 cards left), when 9s are depleted (dep263-rank-9) late in the shoe, more (156c) hands bypass four-card natural resolution (dep263-rank-9·156c) and enter the five- and six-card tableau; removing 5 of 16 Rank-9 cards (-0.23 bps weight) leaves Banker at -1.0060% EV under 5%.

State DEP263 (4D, 25% depth, 11/16 Rank-9 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP263 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP263 Banker (5% Vig)45.8729% (-1.0060% EV)45.8732%DEP263 4D 25% (11 Rank-9)
DEP263 Player (1:1)44.5853% (-1.2876% EV)44.5850%DEP263 156-card 4D stub (0.9347 SD)
DEP263 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1239% EV)9.5418%DEP263 Rank-9 (5 out, 11 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP263

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP263 · 4D)

Learners auditing DEP263 (4D at 25% depth, 11/16 Rank-9 in 156 stub cards) can verify that 5% house hold (1.0060% Banker, 1.2876% Player, 14.1239% Tie) operates independently of prior Big Road streaks.

  • DEP263 (4D 25%): 156/208 cards with 11/16 Rank-9 (4A).
  • DEP263 (Rank-9 split): 45.8729% Banker, 44.5853% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 156 4D cards (4B).
  • DEP263 (5% Vig EV): -1.0060% Banker, -1.2876% Player, -14.1239% Tie, 0.9347 SD at 25% (4C).
  • DEP263 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 11 Rank-9 stub count (4D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 5 Nine-Pip Card cards leave a 4D shoe by 25% depth (DEP263), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-9 stub counts (11/16 in 156 cards); Banker carries a -1.0060% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android