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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-9 · 10% DEPTH

4-Deck Nine-Pip Card Depletion at 10% Penetration (5% Audit DEP262)

Removing 2 of 16 Nine-Pip Card (Rank-9) cards at 10% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 14 Rank-9 cards inside a 187-card stub (DEP262), producing 45.8731% Banker wins, 44.5851% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 1.0057% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0057%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2880%
Rank-9 in 187-Card Stub
14/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9332
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P P B B P B P B P P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference shoe scoreboard (PPBBBPPPBBPBTBPBPP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP262 (4D Rank-9 at 10% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP262)
187 / 208 Cards

10% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-9 Remaining
14 of 16 Cards

2 9-pip cards (top Natural 9 generator) removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0057%

Resolved at 45.8731% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2880%

Resolved at 44.5851% Player win rate with 0.9332 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1238% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP262.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP262

How Nine-Pip Card Depletion at 10% Depth Impacts 4D (5% Vig)

Depletion matrix entry DEP262 pairs 4D (208 cards) at 10% penetration with 2 removed Nine-Pip Card cards (14 left in 187 cards), fixing per-hand volatility at 0.9332 and Banker house hold at 1.0057% (5% Vig).

Comparing initial 208-card 4D weights against stub DEP262 (187 cards, 10% depth, 14 Rank-9 left) illustrates how rank 9 paired with (dep262) any ten or face card (4d-10%) creates an unbeatable two-card natural (dep262·4d-10%) 9 that halts all third-card drawing on both sides (-0.23 bps slope, 1.0057% 5% Vig edge).

State DEP262 (4D, 10% depth, 14/16 Rank-9 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP262 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP262 Banker (5% Vig)45.8731% (-1.0057% EV)45.8732%DEP262 4D 10% (14 Rank-9)
DEP262 Player (1:1)44.5851% (-1.2880% EV)44.5850%DEP262 187-card 4D stub (0.9332 SD)
DEP262 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1238% EV)9.5418%DEP262 Rank-9 (2 out, 14 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP262

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP262 · 4D)

Synthesizing DEP262 (4D at 10% depth, 14 Nine-Pip Card cards left inside 187 stub cards): 5% rules produce a 1.0057% Banker edge, 1.2880% Player edge, 14.1238% Tie edge, and 0.9332 unit volatility.

  • DEP262 (4D 10%): 187/208 cards with 14/16 Rank-9 (6A).
  • DEP262 (Rank-9 split): 45.8731% Banker, 44.5851% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 187 4D cards (6B).
  • DEP262 (5% Vig EV): -1.0057% Banker, -1.2880% Player, -14.1238% Tie, 0.9332 SD at 10% (6C).
  • DEP262 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 14 Rank-9 stub count (6D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 2 Nine-Pip Card cards leave a 4D shoe by 10% depth (DEP262), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-9 stub counts (14/16 in 187 cards); Banker carries a -1.0057% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android