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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-8 · 85% DEPTH

4-Deck Eight-Pip Card Depletion at 85% Penetration (EZ Baccarat Audit DEP261)

Removing 15 of 16 Eight-Pip Card (Rank-8) cards at 85% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 1 Rank-8 cards inside a 31-card stub (DEP261), producing 45.8706% Banker wins, 44.5877% Player wins, 9.5417% Ties, and a 0.9704% Banker house edge under EZ Baccarat.

Banker EV (EZ Bar-7)
-0.9704%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2830%
Rank-8 in 31-Card Stub
1/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9404
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P P B B B P P B B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPPBBBPPBPTBPBBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP261 (4D Rank-8 at 85% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP261)
31 / 208 Cards

85% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-8 Remaining
1 of 16 Cards

15 8-pip cards (Natural 8 generator and Banker 3 block) removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (EZ Bar-7)
-0.9704%

Resolved at 45.8706% Banker win rate under EZ Baccarat settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2830%

Resolved at 44.5877% Player win rate with 0.9404 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5417%

Produces a 14.1247% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP261.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP261

How Eight-Pip Card Depletion at 85% Depth Impacts 4D (EZ Bar-7)

Across 7,673,190,695,193,600 initial 4D permutations, depletion node DEP261 narrows to a 31-card stub (85% depth) holding 1 of 16 Rank-8 cards, where Banker resolves at 45.8706% (-0.9704% EV) and Player at 44.5877% (-1.2830% EV).

Because depleting 8-pip cards also (dep261-rank-8) lowers two-card natural 8 lockouts (31c) when paired with zero-point tens (dep261-rank-8·31c) and court cards, state DEP261 (85% 4D depth, 15 Rank-8 removed, 1 in 31 cards) registers a -0.50 bps rank derivative and 0.9704% Banker house edge (EZ Bar-7).

State DEP261 (4D, 85% depth, 1/16 Rank-8 left, EZ Bar-7)
Wager / MetricState DEP261 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP261 Banker (EZ Bar-7)45.8706% (-0.9704% EV)45.8732%DEP261 4D 85% (1 Rank-8)
DEP261 Player (1:1)44.5877% (-1.2830% EV)44.5850%DEP261 31-card 4D stub (0.9404 SD)
DEP261 Tie (8:1)9.5417% (-14.1247% EV)9.5418%DEP261 Rank-8 (15 out, 1 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP261

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP261 · 4D)

Statistical verification of DEP261 (4D, 85% penetration, 1 Eight-Pip Card cards in 31 stub cards) demonstrates why single-rank depletion (15 Rank-8 dealt) shifts edges by basis points around -0.9704% (EZ Bar-7).

  • DEP261 (4D 85%): 31/208 cards with 1/16 Rank-8 (1A).
  • DEP261 (Rank-8 split): 45.8706% Banker, 44.5877% Player, 9.5417% Tie in 31 4D cards (1B).
  • DEP261 (EZ Bar-7 EV): -0.9704% Banker, -1.2830% Player, -14.1247% Tie, 0.9404 SD at 85% (1C).
  • DEP261 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 1 Rank-8 stub count (1D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 15 Eight-Pip Card cards leave a 4D shoe by 85% depth (DEP261), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-8 stub counts (1/16 in 31 cards); Banker carries a -0.9704% expectation under EZ Baccarat.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android