Skip to main content
Baccarat Smart
  1. Home
  2. Combinatorial Math Hub
  3. 4D Rank-8 Depletion at 40% Depth (4% Vig)
COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-8 · 40% DEPTH

4-Deck Eight-Pip Card Depletion at 40% Penetration (4% Audit DEP255)

Removing 7 of 16 Eight-Pip Card (Rank-8) cards at 40% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 9 Rank-8 cards inside a 125-card stub (DEP255), producing 45.8723% Banker wins, 44.5860% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 0.5486% Banker house edge under 4%.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5486%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2863%
Rank-8 in 125-Card Stub
9/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9359
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P P B B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = = = = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = = = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPBBPPBBPPBPTBPB) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP255 (4D Rank-8 at 40% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP255)
125 / 208 Cards

40% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-8 Remaining
9 of 16 Cards

7 8-pip cards (Natural 8 generator and Banker 3 block) removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5486%

Resolved at 45.8723% Banker win rate under 4% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2863%

Resolved at 44.5860% Player win rate with 0.9359 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1241% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP255.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP255

How Eight-Pip Card Depletion at 40% Depth Impacts 4D (4% Vig)

When a 4D shoe reaches 40% cut-card depth (125 of 208 cards undealt, state DEP255) with 7 Eight-Pip Card cards removed and 9 remaining, Player wins 44.5860% (1.2863% edge) while Banker wins 45.8723% (0.5486% edge under 4%).

Tracking DEP255 across 125 remaining 4D cards (40% depth) shows that depleting 8-pip cards also (dep255-rank-8) lowers two-card natural 8 lockouts (125c) when paired with zero-point tens (dep255-rank-8·125c) and court cards. With 7 Rank-8 cards gone (-0.50 bps unit sensitivity), Banker expectation is -0.5486% (4% Vig) vs -1.2863% on Player.

State DEP255 (4D, 40% depth, 9/16 Rank-8 left, 4% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP255 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP255 Banker (4% Vig)45.8723% (-0.5486% EV)45.8732%DEP255 4D 40% (9 Rank-8)
DEP255 Player (1:1)44.5860% (-1.2863% EV)44.5850%DEP255 125-card 4D stub (0.9359 SD)
DEP255 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1241% EV)9.5418%DEP255 Rank-8 (7 out, 9 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP255

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP255 · 4D)

Comparing DEP255 (40% 4D depth, 7 Rank-8 removed, 9 remaining in 125 cards) against fresh-shoe baselines shows how finite-stub variance (0.9359 SD) coexists with a 0.5486% 4% Banker house edge.

  • DEP255 (4D 40%): 125/208 cards with 9/16 Rank-8 (6A).
  • DEP255 (Rank-8 split): 45.8723% Banker, 44.5860% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 125 4D cards (6B).
  • DEP255 (4% Vig EV): -0.5486% Banker, -1.2863% Player, -14.1241% Tie, 0.9359 SD at 40% (6C).
  • DEP255 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 9 Rank-8 stub count (6D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 7 Eight-Pip Card cards leave a 4D shoe by 40% depth (DEP255), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-8 stub counts (9/16 in 125 cards); Banker carries a -0.5486% expectation under 4%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android