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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-7 · 70% DEPTH

4-Deck Seven-Pip Card Depletion at 70% Penetration (5% Audit DEP249)

Removing 13 of 16 Seven-Pip Card (Rank-7) cards at 70% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 3 Rank-7 cards inside a 62-card stub (DEP249), producing 45.8698% Banker wins, 44.5885% Player wins, 9.5417% Ties, and a 1.0122% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0122%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2813%
Rank-7 in 62-Card Stub
3/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9386
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPBPTBPPBBPBPBBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP249 (4D Rank-7 at 70% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP249)
62 / 208 Cards

70% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-7 Remaining
3 of 16 Cards

13 7-pip cards (Player stand total and Dragon 7 boundary) removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0122%

Resolved at 45.8698% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2813%

Resolved at 44.5885% Player win rate with 0.9386 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5417%

Produces a 14.1245% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP249.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP249

How Seven-Pip Card Depletion at 70% Depth Impacts 4D (5% Vig)

Removing 13 of 16 Rank-7 cards by the 70% mark of a 4-deck shoe (DEP249, 62 cards left) leaves 3 Seven-Pip Card cards and adjusts conditional probabilities to 45.8698% Banker, 44.5885% Player, and 9.5417% Tie under 5%.

Tableau audit DEP249 confirms that player stands pat on (dep249) two-card 7, and a player (4d-70%) third-card 7 is the highest (dep249·4d-70%) card that forces banker 4, 5, and 6 to draw. Inside the 62-card 4D stub (70% depth, 3/16 Rank-7 remaining, -0.83 bps slope), standard deviation is 0.9386 under 5% Vig.

State DEP249 (4D, 70% depth, 3/16 Rank-7 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP249 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP249 Banker (5% Vig)45.8698% (-1.0122% EV)45.8732%DEP249 4D 70% (3 Rank-7)
DEP249 Player (1:1)44.5885% (-1.2813% EV)44.5850%DEP249 62-card 4D stub (0.9386 SD)
DEP249 Tie (8:1)9.5417% (-14.1245% EV)9.5418%DEP249 Rank-7 (13 out, 3 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP249

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP249 · 4D)

Across 100-hand session horizons at state DEP249 (4D 70% depth, 3/16 Rank-7 in 62 cards), single-hand dispersion (0.9386 SD) dominates the 1.0122% (5% Vig) Banker and 1.2813% Player expectation gap.

  • DEP249 (4D 70%): 62/208 cards with 3/16 Rank-7 (4A).
  • DEP249 (Rank-7 split): 45.8698% Banker, 44.5885% Player, 9.5417% Tie in 62 4D cards (4B).
  • DEP249 (5% Vig EV): -1.0122% Banker, -1.2813% Player, -14.1245% Tie, 0.9386 SD at 70% (4C).
  • DEP249 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 3 Rank-7 stub count (4D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 13 Seven-Pip Card cards leave a 4D shoe by 70% depth (DEP249), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-7 stub counts (3/16 in 62 cards); Banker carries a -1.0122% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

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Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android