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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-7 · 40% DEPTH

4-Deck Seven-Pip Card Depletion at 40% Penetration (4% Audit DEP246)

Removing 7 of 16 Seven-Pip Card (Rank-7) cards at 40% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 9 Rank-7 cards inside a 125-card stub (DEP246), producing 45.8717% Banker wins, 44.5866% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 0.5498% Banker house edge under 4%.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5498%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2851%
Rank-7 in 125-Card Stub
9/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9356
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P P B B P B P B P P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference shoe scoreboard (PPBBBPPPBBPBTBPBPP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP246 (4D Rank-7 at 40% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP246)
125 / 208 Cards

40% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-7 Remaining
9 of 16 Cards

7 7-pip cards (Player stand total and Dragon 7 boundary) removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5498%

Resolved at 45.8717% Banker win rate under 4% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2851%

Resolved at 44.5866% Player win rate with 0.9356 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1241% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP246.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP246

How Seven-Pip Card Depletion at 40% Depth Impacts 4D (4% Vig)

Within four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes, profile DEP246 examines 40% shoe depletion (125 of 208 cards remaining) after 7 Rank-7 cards exit, leaving 9 Seven-Pip Card cards and a 0.5498% Banker house hold under 4%.

Mechanical draw trees in DEP246 reflect how depleting 7s lowers the (dep246-rank-7) rate of winning three-card banker (125c) 7 hands (the barred push (dep246-rank-7·125c) total on ez baccarat tables). At 40% 4D depth (9 Rank-7 left of 16 in 125 cards, -0.83 bps slope), winning banker wagers collect (dep246-4d) 0.96 units per unit staked (9/16) with 60% of the shoe (dep246-4d·9/16) still inside the acrylic carrier.

State DEP246 (4D, 40% depth, 9/16 Rank-7 left, 4% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP246 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP246 Banker (4% Vig)45.8717% (-0.5498% EV)45.8732%DEP246 4D 40% (9 Rank-7)
DEP246 Player (1:1)44.5866% (-1.2851% EV)44.5850%DEP246 125-card 4D stub (0.9356 SD)
DEP246 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1241% EV)9.5418%DEP246 Rank-7 (7 out, 9 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP246

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP246 · 4D)

Statistical verification of DEP246 (4D, 40% penetration, 9 Seven-Pip Card cards in 125 stub cards) demonstrates why single-rank depletion (7 Rank-7 dealt) shifts edges by basis points around -0.5498% (4% Vig).

  • DEP246 (4D 40%): 125/208 cards with 9/16 Rank-7 (3A).
  • DEP246 (Rank-7 split): 45.8717% Banker, 44.5866% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 125 4D cards (3B).
  • DEP246 (4% Vig EV): -0.5498% Banker, -1.2851% Player, -14.1241% Tie, 0.9356 SD at 40% (3C).
  • DEP246 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 9 Rank-7 stub count (3D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 7 Seven-Pip Card cards leave a 4D shoe by 40% depth (DEP246), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-7 stub counts (9/16 in 125 cards); Banker carries a -0.5498% expectation under 4%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android