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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-6 · 40% DEPTH

4-Deck Six-Pip Card Depletion at 40% Penetration (4% Audit DEP237)

Removing 7 of 16 Six-Pip Card (Rank-6) cards at 40% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 9 Rank-6 cards inside a 125-card stub (DEP237), producing 45.8711% Banker wins, 44.5871% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 0.5509% Banker house edge under 4%.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5509%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2839%
Rank-6 in 125-Card Stub
9/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9353
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B B P P B P B B P P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ =

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPBPBBPPBPBBPPBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP237 (4D Rank-6 at 40% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP237)
125 / 208 Cards

40% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-6 Remaining
9 of 16 Cards

7 6-pip cards (standing threshold and Banker 6 trigger) removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5509%

Resolved at 45.8711% Banker win rate under 4% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2839%

Resolved at 44.5871% Player win rate with 0.9353 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1241% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP237.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP237

How Six-Pip Card Depletion at 40% Depth Impacts 4D (4% Vig)

Shoe-stub analysis DEP237 inspects 125 remaining cards at 40% penetration of a 208-card (4D) pack after 7 Six-Pip Card cards have cleared, leaving 9 Rank-6 cards and a 0.5509% 4% Banker edge.

When 7 Rank-6 cards exit a 4D shoe by 40% penetration (DEP237, 9 left in 125 cards), removing 6-pip cards produces (dep237-rank-6) the strongest per-card shift toward (125c) the player side and reduces (dep237-rank-6·125c) barred banker 6 incidence, combining a -1.13 bps rank vector with 4% settlement (-0.5509% Banker EV).

State DEP237 (4D, 40% depth, 9/16 Rank-6 left, 4% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP237 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP237 Banker (4% Vig)45.8711% (-0.5509% EV)45.8732%DEP237 4D 40% (9 Rank-6)
DEP237 Player (1:1)44.5871% (-1.2839% EV)44.5850%DEP237 125-card 4D stub (0.9353 SD)
DEP237 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1241% EV)9.5418%DEP237 Rank-6 (7 out, 9 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP237

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP237 · 4D)

For DEP237 (125 remaining cards in a 208-card 4D shoe at 40% depth), tracking all 7 exited Rank-6 cards moves Banker win rate to 45.8711% (-0.5509% EV, 4% Vig) and Player to 44.5871% (-1.2839% EV).

  • DEP237 (4D 40%): 125/208 cards with 9/16 Rank-6 (7A).
  • DEP237 (Rank-6 split): 45.8711% Banker, 44.5871% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 125 4D cards (7B).
  • DEP237 (4% Vig EV): -0.5509% Banker, -1.2839% Player, -14.1241% Tie, 0.9353 SD at 40% (7C).
  • DEP237 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 9 Rank-6 stub count (7D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 7 Six-Pip Card cards leave a 4D shoe by 40% depth (DEP237), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-6 stub counts (9/16 in 125 cards); Banker carries a -0.5509% expectation under 4%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android