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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-5 · 70% DEPTH

4-Deck Five-Pip Card Depletion at 70% Penetration (5% Audit DEP231)

Removing 13 of 16 Five-Pip Card (Rank-5) cards at 70% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 3 Rank-5 cards inside a 62-card stub (DEP231), producing 45.8697% Banker wins, 44.5885% Player wins, 9.5417% Ties, and a 1.0123% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0123%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2812%
Rank-5 in 62-Card Stub
3/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9380
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P B P B P P B B P P B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠
Small Road = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPBBPBPBPPBBPPBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP231 (4D Rank-5 at 70% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP231)
62 / 208 Cards

70% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-5 Remaining
3 of 16 Cards

13 5-pip cards (final mandatory Player draw threshold) removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0123%

Resolved at 45.8697% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2812%

Resolved at 44.5885% Player win rate with 0.9380 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5417%

Produces a 14.1245% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP231.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP231

How Five-Pip Card Depletion at 70% Depth Impacts 4D (5% Vig)

Card-removal benchmark DEP231 measures Five-Pip Card (Rank-5) scarcity at 70% depth in a 4-deck shoe: 13 removed ranks leave 3 in the 62-card remainder, shifting Banker win share to 45.8697% (1.0123% edge, 5% Vig).

In 4D audit DEP231 (62/208 stub at 70% depth), fewer 5s in the (dep231-rank-5) stub reduce banker third-card improvements (62c) from 3 to 8 and (dep231-rank-5·62c) from 4 to 9. Removing 13 Rank-5 cards (-0.84 bps per card) alongside 5% Vig rules sets Tie hold to 14.1245% (9.5417% frequency).

State DEP231 (4D, 70% depth, 3/16 Rank-5 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP231 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP231 Banker (5% Vig)45.8697% (-1.0123% EV)45.8732%DEP231 4D 70% (3 Rank-5)
DEP231 Player (1:1)44.5885% (-1.2812% EV)44.5850%DEP231 62-card 4D stub (0.9380 SD)
DEP231 Tie (8:1)9.5417% (-14.1245% EV)9.5418%DEP231 Rank-5 (13 out, 3 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP231

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP231 · 4D)

Statistical verification of DEP231 (4D, 70% penetration, 3 Five-Pip Card cards in 62 stub cards) demonstrates why single-rank depletion (13 Rank-5 dealt) shifts edges by basis points around -1.0123% (5% Vig).

  • DEP231 (4D 70%): 62/208 cards with 3/16 Rank-5 (5A).
  • DEP231 (Rank-5 split): 45.8697% Banker, 44.5885% Player, 9.5417% Tie in 62 4D cards (5B).
  • DEP231 (5% Vig EV): -1.0123% Banker, -1.2812% Player, -14.1245% Tie, 0.9380 SD at 70% (5C).
  • DEP231 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 3 Rank-5 stub count (5D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 13 Five-Pip Card cards leave a 4D shoe by 70% depth (DEP231), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-5 stub counts (3/16 in 62 cards); Banker carries a -1.0123% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android