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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-5 · 40% DEPTH

4-Deck Five-Pip Card Depletion at 40% Penetration (4% Audit DEP228)

Removing 7 of 16 Five-Pip Card (Rank-5) cards at 40% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 9 Rank-5 cards inside a 125-card stub (DEP228), producing 45.8716% Banker wins, 44.5866% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 0.5498% Banker house edge under 4%.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5498%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2850%
Rank-5 in 125-Card Stub
9/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9350
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P B P B P P B B P B P B P P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = = ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (PPBBPBPBPPBBPBPBPP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP228 (4D Rank-5 at 40% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP228)
125 / 208 Cards

40% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-5 Remaining
9 of 16 Cards

7 5-pip cards (final mandatory Player draw threshold) removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5498%

Resolved at 45.8716% Banker win rate under 4% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2850%

Resolved at 44.5866% Player win rate with 0.9350 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1241% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP228.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP228

How Five-Pip Card Depletion at 40% Depth Impacts 4D (4% Vig)

Finite-shoe specification DEP228 tracks Rank-5 removal at 40% depth in 4-deck play: with 9 of 16 Five-Pip Card cards left in the 125-card stub, Tie incidence is 9.5418% and Banker expectation settles at -0.5498% (4% Vig).

Because Player draws on (DEP228) two-card 5 and stands on (4D-40%) 6, while Banker 3, 4, (DEP228·4D-40%) and 5 all draw against a Player third-card 5, rank 5 favors Player when depleted. In state DEP228 (4D, 40% depth), each removed Rank-5 card applies a -0.84 bps baseline directional pressure before scaling to the 125-card remainder (9 Rank-5 left), while Winning Banker wagers collect (DEP228-4D) 0.96 units per unit staked (9/16) with 60% of the shoe (DEP228-4D·9/16) still inside the acrylic carrier.

State DEP228 (4D, 40% depth, 9/16 Rank-5 left, 4% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP228 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP228 Banker (4% Vig)45.8716% (-0.5498% EV)45.8732%DEP228 4D 40% (9 Rank-5)
DEP228 Player (1:1)44.5866% (-1.2850% EV)44.5850%DEP228 125-card 4D stub (0.9350 SD)
DEP228 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1241% EV)9.5418%DEP228 Rank-5 (7 out, 9 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP228

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP228 · 4D)

Whether DEP228 is observed in four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes at 40% depth (125/208 cards left, 9 Rank-5 remaining), 4% Vig settlement locks Banker EV at -0.5498% and Player EV at -1.2850% with 9.5418% Ties.

  • DEP228 (4D 40%): 125/208 cards with 9/16 Rank-5 (4A).
  • DEP228 (Rank-5 split): 45.8716% Banker, 44.5866% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 125 4D cards (4B).
  • DEP228 (4% Vig EV): -0.5498% Banker, -1.2850% Player, -14.1241% Tie, 0.9350 SD at 40% (4C).
  • DEP228 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 9 Rank-5 stub count (4D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 7 Five-Pip Card cards leave a 4D shoe by 40% depth (DEP228), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-5 stub counts (9/16 in 125 cards); Banker carries a -0.5498% expectation under 4%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android