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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-5 · 25% DEPTH

4-Deck Five-Pip Card Depletion at 25% Penetration (5% Audit DEP227)

Removing 5 of 16 Five-Pip Card (Rank-5) cards at 25% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 11 Rank-5 cards inside a 156-card stub (DEP227), producing 45.8722% Banker wins, 44.5860% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 1.0075% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0075%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2861%
Rank-5 in 156-Card Stub
11/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9335
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B P B B P P B P B P B B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = = ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPBPBPBBPPBPBPBB) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP227 (4D Rank-5 at 25% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP227)
156 / 208 Cards

25% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-5 Remaining
11 of 16 Cards

5 5-pip cards (final mandatory Player draw threshold) removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0075%

Resolved at 45.8722% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2861%

Resolved at 44.5860% Player win rate with 0.9335 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1240% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP227.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP227

How Five-Pip Card Depletion at 25% Depth Impacts 4D (5% Vig)

When a 4D shoe reaches 25% cut-card depth (156 of 208 cards undealt, state DEP227) with 5 Five-Pip Card cards removed and 11 remaining, Player wins 44.5860% (1.2861% edge) while Banker wins 45.8722% (1.0075% edge under 5%).

In six-card resolution tree DEP227 (4D at 25% depth, 156 cards left), fewer 5s in the (dep227-rank-5) stub reduce banker third-card improvements (156c) from 3 to 8 and (dep227-rank-5·156c) from 4 to 9; removing 5 of 16 Rank-5 cards (-0.84 bps weight) leaves Banker at -1.0075% EV under 5%.

State DEP227 (4D, 25% depth, 11/16 Rank-5 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP227 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP227 Banker (5% Vig)45.8722% (-1.0075% EV)45.8732%DEP227 4D 25% (11 Rank-5)
DEP227 Player (1:1)44.5860% (-1.2861% EV)44.5850%DEP227 156-card 4D stub (0.9335 SD)
DEP227 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1240% EV)9.5418%DEP227 Rank-5 (5 out, 11 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP227

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP227 · 4D)

Scoreboard literacy in DEP227 separates two independent concepts: 4D card-removal math (11 Rank-5 left in 156 cards at 25% depth, 0.9335 volatility) and derived-road comparison rules (Rule 1 column-depth checks and Rule 2 two-cell lookbacks).

  • DEP227 (4D 25%): 156/208 cards with 11/16 Rank-5 (6A).
  • DEP227 (Rank-5 split): 45.8722% Banker, 44.5860% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 156 4D cards (6B).
  • DEP227 (5% Vig EV): -1.0075% Banker, -1.2861% Player, -14.1240% Tie, 0.9335 SD at 25% (6C).
  • DEP227 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 11 Rank-5 stub count (6D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 5 Five-Pip Card cards leave a 4D shoe by 25% depth (DEP227), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-5 stub counts (11/16 in 156 cards); Banker carries a -1.0075% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android