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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-4 · 85% DEPTH

4-Deck Four-Pip Card Depletion at 85% Penetration (EZ Baccarat Audit DEP225)

Removing 15 of 16 Four-Pip Card (Rank-4) cards at 85% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 1 Rank-4 cards inside a 31-card stub (DEP225), producing 45.8793% Banker wins, 44.5788% Player wins, 9.5419% Ties, and a 0.9529% Banker house edge under EZ Baccarat.

Banker EV (EZ Bar-7)
-0.9529%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.3005%
Rank-4 in 31-Card Stub
1/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9392
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPBBPPBPTBPBBPBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP225 (4D Rank-4 at 85% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP225)
31 / 208 Cards

85% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-4 Remaining
1 of 16 Cards

15 4-pip cards (strongest pro-Banker removal sensitivity) removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (EZ Bar-7)
-0.9529%

Resolved at 45.8793% Banker win rate under EZ Baccarat settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.3005%

Resolved at 44.5788% Player win rate with 0.9392 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5419%

Produces a 14.1229% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP225.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP225

How Four-Pip Card Depletion at 85% Depth Impacts 4D (EZ Bar-7)

Audit DEP225 evaluates a 4-deck (208-card) shoe at 85% penetration where 15 of 16 Four-Pip Card cards have exited, leaving 1 Rank-4 cards inside the 31-card stub with Banker EV at -0.9529% under EZ Baccarat.

Because removing 4s produces the (dep225-rank-4) single largest per-card shift toward (31c) banker (and away from player) (dep225-rank-4·31c) of any rank in the shoe, state DEP225 (85% 4D depth, 15 Rank-4 removed, 1 in 31 cards) registers a +1.19 bps rank derivative and 0.9529% Banker house edge (EZ Bar-7).

State DEP225 (4D, 85% depth, 1/16 Rank-4 left, EZ Bar-7)
Wager / MetricState DEP225 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP225 Banker (EZ Bar-7)45.8793% (-0.9529% EV)45.8732%DEP225 4D 85% (1 Rank-4)
DEP225 Player (1:1)44.5788% (-1.3005% EV)44.5850%DEP225 31-card 4D stub (0.9392 SD)
DEP225 Tie (8:1)9.5419% (-14.1229% EV)9.5418%DEP225 Rank-4 (15 out, 1 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP225

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP225 · 4D)

Comparing DEP225 (85% 4D depth, 15 Rank-4 removed, 1 remaining in 31 cards) against fresh-shoe baselines shows how finite-stub variance (0.9392 SD) coexists with a 0.9529% EZ Baccarat Banker house edge.

  • DEP225 (4D 85%): 31/208 cards with 1/16 Rank-4 (3A).
  • DEP225 (Rank-4 split): 45.8793% Banker, 44.5788% Player, 9.5419% Tie in 31 4D cards (3B).
  • DEP225 (EZ Bar-7 EV): -0.9529% Banker, -1.3005% Player, -14.1229% Tie, 0.9392 SD at 85% (3C).
  • DEP225 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 1 Rank-4 stub count (3D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 15 Four-Pip Card cards leave a 4D shoe by 85% depth (DEP225), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-4 stub counts (1/16 in 31 cards); Banker carries a -0.9529% expectation under EZ Baccarat.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android