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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-4 · 40% DEPTH

4-Deck Four-Pip Card Depletion at 40% Penetration (4% Audit DEP219)

Removing 7 of 16 Four-Pip Card (Rank-4) cards at 40% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 9 Rank-4 cards inside a 125-card stub (DEP219), producing 45.8754% Banker wins, 44.5827% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 0.5423% Banker house edge under 4%.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5423%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2927%
Rank-4 in 125-Card Stub
9/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9347
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B B B P P P P B B P P B P
Big Eye Boy = = = ≠ = ≠ = = = = = ≠ = = ≠
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = ≠ = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPBBBBPPPPBBPPBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP219 (4D Rank-4 at 40% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP219)
125 / 208 Cards

40% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-4 Remaining
9 of 16 Cards

7 4-pip cards (strongest pro-Banker removal sensitivity) removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5423%

Resolved at 45.8754% Banker win rate under 4% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2927%

Resolved at 44.5827% Player win rate with 0.9347 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1235% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP219.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP219

How Four-Pip Card Depletion at 40% Depth Impacts 4D (4% Vig)

Across 7,673,190,695,193,600 initial 4D permutations, depletion node DEP219 narrows to a 125-card stub (40% depth) holding 9 of 16 Rank-4 cards, where Banker resolves at 45.8754% (-0.5423% EV) and Player at 44.5827% (-1.2927% EV).

Under the fixed third-card tableau for DEP219, rank 4 sits at (dep219) the exact pivot where banker (4d-40%) 5 begins drawing (player third (dep219·4d-40%) card 4–7) while banker 3 and 4 also draw. With 9 Rank-4 cards inside 125 remaining 4D cards (40% dealt), single-card slope (+1.19 bps) keeps Banker house edge at 0.5423% and Player at 1.2927%.

State DEP219 (4D, 40% depth, 9/16 Rank-4 left, 4% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP219 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP219 Banker (4% Vig)45.8754% (-0.5423% EV)45.8732%DEP219 4D 40% (9 Rank-4)
DEP219 Player (1:1)44.5827% (-1.2927% EV)44.5850%DEP219 125-card 4D stub (0.9347 SD)
DEP219 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1235% EV)9.5418%DEP219 Rank-4 (7 out, 9 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP219

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP219 · 4D)

Across 100-hand session horizons at state DEP219 (4D 40% depth, 9/16 Rank-4 in 125 cards), single-hand dispersion (0.9347 SD) dominates the 0.5423% (4% Vig) Banker and 1.2927% Player expectation gap.

  • DEP219 (4D 40%): 125/208 cards with 9/16 Rank-4 (1A).
  • DEP219 (Rank-4 split): 45.8754% Banker, 44.5827% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 125 4D cards (1B).
  • DEP219 (4% Vig EV): -0.5423% Banker, -1.2927% Player, -14.1235% Tie, 0.9347 SD at 40% (1C).
  • DEP219 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 9 Rank-4 stub count (1D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 7 Four-Pip Card cards leave a 4D shoe by 40% depth (DEP219), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-4 stub counts (9/16 in 125 cards); Banker carries a -0.5423% expectation under 4%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android