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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-4 · 25% DEPTH

4-Deck Four-Pip Card Depletion at 25% Penetration (5% Audit DEP218)

Removing 5 of 16 Four-Pip Card (Rank-4) cards at 25% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 11 Rank-4 cards inside a 156-card stub (DEP218), producing 45.8746% Banker wins, 44.5835% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 1.0026% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0026%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2911%
Rank-4 in 156-Card Stub
11/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9332
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P B P P B B P B P B P P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ = = = ≠
Small Road ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (PPBBPBTBPPBBPBPBPP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP218 (4D Rank-4 at 25% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP218)
156 / 208 Cards

25% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-4 Remaining
11 of 16 Cards

5 4-pip cards (strongest pro-Banker removal sensitivity) removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0026%

Resolved at 45.8746% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2911%

Resolved at 44.5835% Player win rate with 0.9332 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1236% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP218.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP218

How Four-Pip Card Depletion at 25% Depth Impacts 4D (5% Vig)

Within four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes, profile DEP218 examines 25% shoe depletion (156 of 208 cards remaining) after 5 Rank-4 cards exit, leaving 11 Four-Pip Card cards and a 1.0026% Banker house hold under 5%.

Removing 4s produces the (DEP218-Rank-4) single largest per-card shift toward (156c) Banker (and away from Player) (DEP218-Rank-4·156c) of any rank in the shoe. Because 5 of 16 Four-Pip Card cards are absent in DEP218 at 25% 4D penetration (156 cards left), per-card sensitivity (+1.19 bps) interacts directly with quarter-shoe 25% penetration depth (DEP218) under standard 5% Banker commission (Rank-4) (0.95:1 payout).

State DEP218 (4D, 25% depth, 11/16 Rank-4 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP218 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP218 Banker (5% Vig)45.8746% (-1.0026% EV)45.8732%DEP218 4D 25% (11 Rank-4)
DEP218 Player (1:1)44.5835% (-1.2911% EV)44.5850%DEP218 156-card 4D stub (0.9332 SD)
DEP218 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1236% EV)9.5418%DEP218 Rank-4 (5 out, 11 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP218

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP218 · 4D)

Learners auditing DEP218 (4D at 25% depth, 11/16 Rank-4 in 156 stub cards) can verify that 5% house hold (1.0026% Banker, 1.2911% Player, 14.1236% Tie) operates independently of prior Big Road streaks.

  • DEP218 (4D 25%): 156/208 cards with 11/16 Rank-4 (3A).
  • DEP218 (Rank-4 split): 45.8746% Banker, 44.5835% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 156 4D cards (3B).
  • DEP218 (5% Vig EV): -1.0026% Banker, -1.2911% Player, -14.1236% Tie, 0.9332 SD at 25% (3C).
  • DEP218 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 11 Rank-4 stub count (3D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 5 Four-Pip Card cards leave a 4D shoe by 25% depth (DEP218), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-4 stub counts (11/16 in 156 cards); Banker carries a -1.0026% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android