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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-4 · 10% DEPTH

4-Deck Four-Pip Card Depletion at 10% Penetration (5% Audit DEP217)

Removing 2 of 16 Four-Pip Card (Rank-4) cards at 10% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 14 Rank-4 cards inside a 187-card stub (DEP217), producing 45.8737% Banker wins, 44.5845% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 1.0044% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0044%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2892%
Rank-4 in 187-Card Stub
14/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9317
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPBPTBPPBBPBPBBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP217 (4D Rank-4 at 10% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP217)
187 / 208 Cards

10% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-4 Remaining
14 of 16 Cards

2 4-pip cards (strongest pro-Banker removal sensitivity) removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0044%

Resolved at 45.8737% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2892%

Resolved at 44.5845% Player win rate with 0.9317 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1237% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP217.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP217

How Four-Pip Card Depletion at 10% Depth Impacts 4D (5% Vig)

Card-removal benchmark DEP217 measures Four-Pip Card (Rank-4) scarcity at 10% depth in a 4-deck shoe: 2 removed ranks leave 14 in the 187-card remainder, shifting Banker win share to 45.8737% (1.0044% edge, 5% Vig).

Rank 4 sits at (DEP217) the exact pivot where Banker (4D-10%) 5 begins drawing (Player third (DEP217·4D-10%) card 4–7) while Banker 3 and 4 also draw. In state DEP217 (4D, 10% depth), each removed Rank-4 card applies a +1.19 bps baseline directional pressure before scaling to the 187-card remainder (14 Rank-4 left), while Winning Banker tickets pay (DEP217-4D) 0.95 units per unit staked (14/16) while 90% of the initial (DEP217-4D·14/16) shoe remains undealt.

State DEP217 (4D, 10% depth, 14/16 Rank-4 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP217 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP217 Banker (5% Vig)45.8737% (-1.0044% EV)45.8732%DEP217 4D 10% (14 Rank-4)
DEP217 Player (1:1)44.5845% (-1.2892% EV)44.5850%DEP217 187-card 4D stub (0.9317 SD)
DEP217 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1237% EV)9.5418%DEP217 Rank-4 (2 out, 14 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP217

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP217 · 4D)

Synthesizing DEP217 (4D at 10% depth, 14 Four-Pip Card cards left inside 187 stub cards): 5% rules produce a 1.0044% Banker edge, 1.2892% Player edge, 14.1237% Tie edge, and 0.9317 unit volatility.

  • DEP217 (4D 10%): 187/208 cards with 14/16 Rank-4 (5A).
  • DEP217 (Rank-4 split): 45.8737% Banker, 44.5845% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 187 4D cards (5B).
  • DEP217 (5% Vig EV): -1.0044% Banker, -1.2892% Player, -14.1237% Tie, 0.9317 SD at 10% (5C).
  • DEP217 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 14 Rank-4 stub count (5D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 2 Four-Pip Card cards leave a 4D shoe by 10% depth (DEP217), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-4 stub counts (14/16 in 187 cards); Banker carries a -1.0044% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android