Skip to main content
Baccarat Smart
  1. Home
  2. Combinatorial Math Hub
  3. 4D Rank-3 Depletion at 70% Depth (5% Vig)
COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-3 · 70% DEPTH

4-Deck Three-Pip (Trey) Depletion at 70% Penetration (5% Audit DEP213)

Removing 13 of 16 Three-Pip (Trey) (Rank-3) cards at 70% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 3 Rank-3 cards inside a 62-card stub (DEP213), producing 45.8759% Banker wins, 44.5822% Player wins, 9.5419% Ties, and a 1.0002% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0002%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2936%
Rank-3 in 62-Card Stub
3/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9374
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P P B B B P P B B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPPBBBPPBPTBPBBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP213 (4D Rank-3 at 70% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP213)
62 / 208 Cards

70% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-3 Remaining
3 of 16 Cards

13 3-pip cards across all four suits removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0002%

Resolved at 45.8759% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2936%

Resolved at 44.5822% Player win rate with 0.9374 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5419%

Produces a 14.1231% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP213.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP213

How Three-Pip (Trey) Depletion at 70% Depth Impacts 4D (5% Vig)

When a 4D shoe reaches 70% cut-card depth (62 of 208 cards undealt, state DEP213) with 13 Three-Pip (Trey) cards removed and 3 remaining, Player wins 44.5822% (1.2936% edge) while Banker wins 45.8759% (1.0002% edge under 5%).

Tableau audit DEP213 confirms that banker total 4 draws (dep213) on player third-card 3, and (4d-70%) banker total 5 stands on (dep213·4d-70%) player third-card 3, creating asymmetric sensitivity. Inside the 62-card 4D stub (70% depth, 3/16 Rank-3 remaining, +0.65 bps slope), standard deviation is 0.9374 under 5% Vig.

State DEP213 (4D, 70% depth, 3/16 Rank-3 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP213 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP213 Banker (5% Vig)45.8759% (-1.0002% EV)45.8732%DEP213 4D 70% (3 Rank-3)
DEP213 Player (1:1)44.5822% (-1.2936% EV)44.5850%DEP213 62-card 4D stub (0.9374 SD)
DEP213 Tie (8:1)9.5419% (-14.1231% EV)9.5418%DEP213 Rank-3 (13 out, 3 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP213

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP213 · 4D)

Whether DEP213 is observed in four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes at 70% depth (62/208 cards left, 3 Rank-3 remaining), 5% Vig settlement locks Banker EV at -1.0002% and Player EV at -1.2936% with 9.5419% Ties.

  • DEP213 (4D 70%): 62/208 cards with 3/16 Rank-3 (6A).
  • DEP213 (Rank-3 split): 45.8759% Banker, 44.5822% Player, 9.5419% Tie in 62 4D cards (6B).
  • DEP213 (5% Vig EV): -1.0002% Banker, -1.2936% Player, -14.1231% Tie, 0.9374 SD at 70% (6C).
  • DEP213 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 3 Rank-3 stub count (6D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 13 Three-Pip (Trey) cards leave a 4D shoe by 70% depth (DEP213), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-3 stub counts (3/16 in 62 cards); Banker carries a -1.0002% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android