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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-3 · 40% DEPTH

4-Deck Three-Pip (Trey) Depletion at 40% Penetration (4% Audit DEP210)

Removing 7 of 16 Three-Pip (Trey) (Rank-3) cards at 40% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 9 Rank-3 cards inside a 125-card stub (DEP210), producing 45.8744% Banker wins, 44.5837% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 0.5443% Banker house edge under 4%.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5443%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2907%
Rank-3 in 125-Card Stub
9/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9344
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P P B B P B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (PPBBPPBBPPBBPBPBBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP210 (4D Rank-3 at 40% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP210)
125 / 208 Cards

40% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-3 Remaining
9 of 16 Cards

7 3-pip cards across all four suits removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5443%

Resolved at 45.8744% Banker win rate under 4% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2907%

Resolved at 44.5837% Player win rate with 0.9344 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1235% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP210.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP210

How Three-Pip (Trey) Depletion at 40% Depth Impacts 4D (4% Vig)

Quantitative proof DEP210 documents 4D rank depletion at 40% depth: 7 exited Rank-3 cards leave 9 of 16 in the 125-card stub, generating 45.8744% Banker wins (-0.5443% EV under 4% Vig) and 44.5837% Player wins.

Why does Rank-3 carry a +0.65 bps per-card effect in DEP210? Banker total 4 draws (DEP210) on Player third-card 3, and (4D-40%) Banker total 5 stands on (DEP210·4D-40%) Player third-card 3, creating asymmetric sensitivity, and at 40% penetration (9 Three-Pip (Trey) cards left in 125 4D cards), winning banker wagers collect (dep210-4d) 0.96 units per unit staked (9/16) with 60% of the shoe (dep210-4d·9/16) still inside the acrylic carrier.

State DEP210 (4D, 40% depth, 9/16 Rank-3 left, 4% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP210 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP210 Banker (4% Vig)45.8744% (-0.5443% EV)45.8732%DEP210 4D 40% (9 Rank-3)
DEP210 Player (1:1)44.5837% (-1.2907% EV)44.5850%DEP210 125-card 4D stub (0.9344 SD)
DEP210 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1235% EV)9.5418%DEP210 Rank-3 (7 out, 9 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP210

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP210 · 4D)

Cut-card protocol at 40% depth in DEP210 (4D, 125 stub cards containing 9 Rank-3 cards) ensures the shoe reshuffles long before 4% house hold (0.5443% Banker / 1.2907% Player) is overturned.

  • DEP210 (4D 40%): 125/208 cards with 9/16 Rank-3 (5A).
  • DEP210 (Rank-3 split): 45.8744% Banker, 44.5837% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 125 4D cards (5B).
  • DEP210 (4% Vig EV): -0.5443% Banker, -1.2907% Player, -14.1235% Tie, 0.9344 SD at 40% (5C).
  • DEP210 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 9 Rank-3 stub count (5D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 7 Three-Pip (Trey) cards leave a 4D shoe by 40% depth (DEP210), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-3 stub counts (9/16 in 125 cards); Banker carries a -0.5443% expectation under 4%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android