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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-3 · 25% DEPTH

4-Deck Three-Pip (Trey) Depletion at 25% Penetration (5% Audit DEP209)

Removing 5 of 16 Three-Pip (Trey) (Rank-3) cards at 25% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 11 Rank-3 cards inside a 156-card stub (DEP209), producing 45.8740% Banker wins, 44.5842% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 1.0039% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0039%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2898%
Rank-3 in 156-Card Stub
11/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9329
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPBBPPBPTBPBBPBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP209 (4D Rank-3 at 25% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP209)
156 / 208 Cards

25% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-3 Remaining
11 of 16 Cards

5 3-pip cards across all four suits removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0039%

Resolved at 45.8740% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2898%

Resolved at 44.5842% Player win rate with 0.9329 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1236% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP209.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP209

How Three-Pip (Trey) Depletion at 25% Depth Impacts 4D (5% Vig)

Shoe-stub analysis DEP209 inspects 156 remaining cards at 25% penetration of a 208-card (4D) pack after 5 Three-Pip (Trey) cards have cleared, leaving 11 Rank-3 cards and a 1.0039% 5% Banker edge.

In 4D audit DEP209 (156/208 stub at 25% depth), each removed 3-pip card (dep209-rank-3) modifies the boundary between banker (156c) standing on 5 and drawing (dep209-rank-3·156c) against mid-range player pulls. Removing 5 Rank-3 cards (+0.65 bps per card) alongside 5% Vig rules sets Tie hold to 14.1236% (9.5418% frequency).

State DEP209 (4D, 25% depth, 11/16 Rank-3 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP209 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP209 Banker (5% Vig)45.8740% (-1.0039% EV)45.8732%DEP209 4D 25% (11 Rank-3)
DEP209 Player (1:1)44.5842% (-1.2898% EV)44.5850%DEP209 156-card 4D stub (0.9329 SD)
DEP209 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1236% EV)9.5418%DEP209 Rank-3 (5 out, 11 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP209

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP209 · 4D)

Comparing DEP209 (25% 4D depth, 5 Rank-3 removed, 11 remaining in 156 cards) against fresh-shoe baselines shows how finite-stub variance (0.9329 SD) coexists with a 1.0039% 5% Banker house edge.

  • DEP209 (4D 25%): 156/208 cards with 11/16 Rank-3 (7A).
  • DEP209 (Rank-3 split): 45.8740% Banker, 44.5842% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 156 4D cards (7B).
  • DEP209 (5% Vig EV): -1.0039% Banker, -1.2898% Player, -14.1236% Tie, 0.9329 SD at 25% (7C).
  • DEP209 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 11 Rank-3 stub count (7D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 5 Three-Pip (Trey) cards leave a 4D shoe by 25% depth (DEP209), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-3 stub counts (11/16 in 156 cards); Banker carries a -1.0039% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android