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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-3 · 10% DEPTH

4-Deck Three-Pip (Trey) Depletion at 10% Penetration (5% Audit DEP208)

Removing 2 of 16 Three-Pip (Trey) (Rank-3) cards at 10% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 14 Rank-3 cards inside a 187-card stub (DEP208), producing 45.8735% Banker wins, 44.5847% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 1.0049% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0049%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2888%
Rank-3 in 187-Card Stub
14/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9314
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P P B B P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ = = = = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ = = ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (PPBBPPBBPPBBPBTBPB) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP208 (4D Rank-3 at 10% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP208)
187 / 208 Cards

10% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-3 Remaining
14 of 16 Cards

2 3-pip cards across all four suits removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0049%

Resolved at 45.8735% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2888%

Resolved at 44.5847% Player win rate with 0.9314 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1237% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP208.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP208

How Three-Pip (Trey) Depletion at 10% Depth Impacts 4D (5% Vig)

Exact conditional enumeration DEP208 for a 4D shoe at 10% depth (187/208 cards undealt) with 14 remaining Rank-3 cards confirms a 1.0049% Banker edge (5% Vig), 1.2888% Player edge, and 14.1237% Tie edge.

Under the fixed third-card tableau for DEP208, banker total 4 draws (dep208) on player third-card 3, and (4d-10%) banker total 5 stands on (dep208·4d-10%) player third-card 3, creating asymmetric sensitivity. With 14 Rank-3 cards inside 187 remaining 4D cards (10% dealt), single-card slope (+0.65 bps) keeps Banker house edge at 1.0049% and Player at 1.2888%.

State DEP208 (4D, 10% depth, 14/16 Rank-3 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP208 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP208 Banker (5% Vig)45.8735% (-1.0049% EV)45.8732%DEP208 4D 10% (14 Rank-3)
DEP208 Player (1:1)44.5847% (-1.2888% EV)44.5850%DEP208 187-card 4D stub (0.9314 SD)
DEP208 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1237% EV)9.5418%DEP208 Rank-3 (2 out, 14 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP208

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP208 · 4D)

Even at 10% penetration in DEP208 where 2 Rank-3 cards have exited a 4D shoe (14 left in 187 cards), derived-road red and blue entries measure structural regularity on the Big Road—not whether Banker (-1.0049% EV, 5% Vig) or Player (-1.2888% EV) is favored next.

  • DEP208 (4D 10%): 187/208 cards with 14/16 Rank-3 (2A).
  • DEP208 (Rank-3 split): 45.8735% Banker, 44.5847% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 187 4D cards (2B).
  • DEP208 (5% Vig EV): -1.0049% Banker, -1.2888% Player, -14.1237% Tie, 0.9314 SD at 10% (2C).
  • DEP208 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 14 Rank-3 stub count (2D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 2 Three-Pip (Trey) cards leave a 4D shoe by 10% depth (DEP208), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-3 stub counts (14/16 in 187 cards); Banker carries a -1.0049% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android