Skip to main content
Baccarat Smart
  1. Home
  2. Combinatorial Math Hub
  3. 4D Rank-2 Depletion at 75% Depth (4% Vig)
COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · RANK-2 · 75% DEPTH

4-Deck Two-Pip (Deuce) Depletion at 75% Penetration (4% Audit DEP205)

Removing 14 of 16 Two-Pip (Deuce) (Rank-2) cards at 75% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 2 Rank-2 cards inside a 52-card stub (DEP205), producing 45.8756% Banker wins, 44.5825% Player wins, 9.5419% Ties, and a 0.5420% Banker house edge under 4%.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5420%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2930%
Rank-2 in 52-Card Stub
2/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9376
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B B P P B P B B P P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ =

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPBPBBPPBPBBPPBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP205 (4D Rank-2 at 75% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP205)
52 / 208 Cards

75% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Rank-2 Remaining
2 of 16 Cards

14 2-pip cards across all four suits removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5420%

Resolved at 45.8756% Banker win rate under 4% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2930%

Resolved at 44.5825% Player win rate with 0.9376 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5419%

Produces a 14.1230% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP205.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP205

How Two-Pip (Deuce) Depletion at 75% Depth Impacts 4D (4% Vig)

Across 7,673,190,695,193,600 initial 4D permutations, depletion node DEP205 narrows to a 52-card stub (75% depth) holding 2 of 16 Rank-2 cards, where Banker resolves at 45.8756% (-0.5420% EV) and Player at 44.5825% (-1.2930% EV).

In six-card resolution tree DEP205 (4D at 75% depth, 52 cards left), depleting 2s shifts the (dep205-rank-2) probability of banker converting a (52c) two-card 4 or 5 into (dep205-rank-2·52c) a winning three-card 6 or 7; removing 14 of 16 Rank-2 cards (+0.52 bps weight) leaves Banker at -0.5420% EV under 4%.

State DEP205 (4D, 75% depth, 2/16 Rank-2 left, 4% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP205 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP205 Banker (4% Vig)45.8756% (-0.5420% EV)45.8732%DEP205 4D 75% (2 Rank-2)
DEP205 Player (1:1)44.5825% (-1.2930% EV)44.5850%DEP205 52-card 4D stub (0.9376 SD)
DEP205 Tie (8:1)9.5419% (-14.1230% EV)9.5418%DEP205 Rank-2 (14 out, 2 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP205

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP205 · 4D)

On the electronic scoreboard for DEP205 (4D, 75% depth, 52 cards left), Bead Plate and Big Road circles record Banker (45.8756%) and Player (44.5825%) outcomes, whereas Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig marks reflect column symmetry rather than Rank-2 card counts (2/16).

  • DEP205 (4D 75%): 52/208 cards with 2/16 Rank-2 (1A).
  • DEP205 (Rank-2 split): 45.8756% Banker, 44.5825% Player, 9.5419% Tie in 52 4D cards (1B).
  • DEP205 (4% Vig EV): -0.5420% Banker, -1.2930% Player, -14.1230% Tie, 0.9376 SD at 75% (1C).
  • DEP205 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 2 Rank-2 stub count (1D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 14 Two-Pip (Deuce) cards leave a 4D shoe by 75% depth (DEP205), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-2 stub counts (2/16 in 52 cards); Banker carries a -0.5420% expectation under 4%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android