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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · ACE-1 · 85% DEPTH

4-Deck Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 85% Penetration (EZ Baccarat Audit DEP198)

Removing 15 of 16 Ace (1-Point Pip) (Ace-1) cards at 85% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 1 Ace-1 cards inside a 31-card stub (DEP198), producing 45.8755% Banker wins, 44.5827% Player wins, 9.5419% Ties, and a 0.9606% Banker house edge under EZ Baccarat.

Banker EV (EZ Bar-7)
-0.9606%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2928%
Ace-1 in 31-Card Stub
1/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9383
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P P B B P B P B P P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference shoe scoreboard (PPBBBPPPBBPBTBPBPP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP198 (4D Ace-1 at 85% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP198)
31 / 208 Cards

85% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Ace-1 Remaining
1 of 16 Cards

15 Ace cards valued at 1 modulo-10 point removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (EZ Bar-7)
-0.9606%

Resolved at 45.8755% Banker win rate under EZ Baccarat settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2928%

Resolved at 44.5827% Player win rate with 0.9383 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5419%

Produces a 14.1233% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP198.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP198

How Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 85% Depth Impacts 4D (EZ Bar-7)

In combinatorial record DEP198, depleting 15 Ace-1 cards across 85% of a 4D (208-card) pack leaves 1 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards among 31 remaining cards, setting Banker win probability to 45.8755% and house edge to 0.9606% (EZ Bar-7).

For DEP198 (4-deck shoe, 85% dealt), removing aces slightly favors (dep198) banker because banker stands on (4d-85%) 6 against player third-card ace (dep198·4d-85%) while player must draw on 0–5. Holding 1 of 16 Ace-1 cards in a 31-card stub with +0.44 bps rank slope yields 45.8755% Banker, 44.5827% Player, and 9.5419% Tie.

State DEP198 (4D, 85% depth, 1/16 Ace-1 left, EZ Bar-7)
Wager / MetricState DEP198 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP198 Banker (EZ Bar-7)45.8755% (-0.9606% EV)45.8732%DEP198 4D 85% (1 Ace-1)
DEP198 Player (1:1)44.5827% (-1.2928% EV)44.5850%DEP198 31-card 4D stub (0.9383 SD)
DEP198 Tie (8:1)9.5419% (-14.1233% EV)9.5418%DEP198 Ace-1 (15 out, 1 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP198

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP198 · 4D)

Whether DEP198 is observed in four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes at 85% depth (31/208 cards left, 1 Ace-1 remaining), EZ Bar-7 settlement locks Banker EV at -0.9606% and Player EV at -1.2928% with 9.5419% Ties.

  • DEP198 (4D 85%): 31/208 cards with 1/16 Ace-1 (1A).
  • DEP198 (Ace-1 split): 45.8755% Banker, 44.5827% Player, 9.5419% Tie in 31 4D cards (1B).
  • DEP198 (EZ Bar-7 EV): -0.9606% Banker, -1.2928% Player, -14.1233% Tie, 0.9383 SD at 85% (1C).
  • DEP198 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 1 Ace-1 stub count (1D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 15 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards leave a 4D shoe by 85% depth (DEP198), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Ace-1 stub counts (1/16 in 31 cards); Banker carries a -0.9606% expectation under EZ Baccarat.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android