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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · ACE-1 · 80% DEPTH

4-Deck Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 80% Penetration (Super 6 Audit DEP197)

Removing 15 of 16 Ace (1-Point Pip) (Ace-1) cards at 80% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 1 Ace-1 cards inside a 42-card stub (DEP197), producing 45.8754% Banker wins, 44.5828% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 1.4004% Banker house edge under Super 6.

Banker EV (Super 6)
-1.4004%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2926%
Ace-1 in 42-Card Stub
1/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9378
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P P B B B P P B B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPPBBBPPBPTBPBBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP197 (4D Ace-1 at 80% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP197)
42 / 208 Cards

80% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Ace-1 Remaining
1 of 16 Cards

15 Ace cards valued at 1 modulo-10 point removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (Super 6)
-1.4004%

Resolved at 45.8754% Banker win rate under Super 6 settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2926%

Resolved at 44.5828% Player win rate with 0.9378 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1234% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP197.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP197

How Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 80% Depth Impacts 4D (Super 6)

Audit DEP197 evaluates a 4-deck (208-card) shoe at 80% penetration where 15 of 16 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards have exited, leaving 1 Ace-1 cards inside the 42-card stub with Banker EV at -1.4004% under Super 6.

Tracking DEP197 across 42 remaining 4D cards (80% depth) shows that when fewer aces remain, (dep197-ace-1) player 7 and 8 third-card (42c) transitions from 6 and 7 (dep197-ace-1·42c) occur less often during six-card resolutions. With 15 Ace-1 cards gone (+0.44 bps unit sensitivity), Banker expectation is -1.4004% (Super 6) vs -1.2926% on Player.

State DEP197 (4D, 80% depth, 1/16 Ace-1 left, Super 6)
Wager / MetricState DEP197 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP197 Banker (Super 6)45.8754% (-1.4004% EV)45.8732%DEP197 4D 80% (1 Ace-1)
DEP197 Player (1:1)44.5828% (-1.2926% EV)44.5850%DEP197 42-card 4D stub (0.9378 SD)
DEP197 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1234% EV)9.5418%DEP197 Ace-1 (15 out, 1 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP197

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP197 · 4D)

Scoreboard literacy in DEP197 separates two independent concepts: 4D card-removal math (1 Ace-1 left in 42 cards at 80% depth, 0.9378 volatility) and derived-road comparison rules (Rule 1 column-depth checks and Rule 2 two-cell lookbacks).

  • DEP197 (4D 80%): 42/208 cards with 1/16 Ace-1 (3A).
  • DEP197 (Ace-1 split): 45.8754% Banker, 44.5828% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 42 4D cards (3B).
  • DEP197 (Super 6 EV): -1.4004% Banker, -1.2926% Player, -14.1234% Tie, 0.9378 SD at 80% (3C).
  • DEP197 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 1 Ace-1 stub count (3D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 15 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards leave a 4D shoe by 80% depth (DEP197), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Ace-1 stub counts (1/16 in 42 cards); Banker carries a -1.4004% expectation under Super 6.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android