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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · ACE-1 · 75% DEPTH

4-Deck Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 75% Penetration (4% Audit DEP196)

Removing 14 of 16 Ace (1-Point Pip) (Ace-1) cards at 75% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 2 Ace-1 cards inside a 52-card stub (DEP196), producing 45.8752% Banker wins, 44.5830% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 0.5428% Banker house edge under 4%.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5428%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2922%
Ace-1 in 52-Card Stub
2/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9373
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P B P B P P B B P B P B P P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = = ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (PPBBPBPBPPBBPBPBPP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP196 (4D Ace-1 at 75% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP196)
52 / 208 Cards

75% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Ace-1 Remaining
2 of 16 Cards

14 Ace cards valued at 1 modulo-10 point removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5428%

Resolved at 45.8752% Banker win rate under 4% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2922%

Resolved at 44.5830% Player win rate with 0.9373 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1234% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP196.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP196

How Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 75% Depth Impacts 4D (4% Vig)

Quantitative proof DEP196 documents 4D rank depletion at 75% depth: 14 exited Ace-1 cards leave 2 of 16 in the 52-card stub, generating 45.8752% Banker wins (-0.5428% EV under 4% Vig) and 44.5830% Player wins.

Tableau audit DEP196 confirms that removing aces slightly favors (dep196) banker because banker stands on (4d-75%) 6 against player third-card ace (dep196·4d-75%) while player must draw on 0–5. Inside the 52-card 4D stub (75% depth, 2/16 Ace-1 remaining, +0.44 bps slope), standard deviation is 0.9373 under 4% Vig.

State DEP196 (4D, 75% depth, 2/16 Ace-1 left, 4% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP196 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP196 Banker (4% Vig)45.8752% (-0.5428% EV)45.8732%DEP196 4D 75% (2 Ace-1)
DEP196 Player (1:1)44.5830% (-1.2922% EV)44.5850%DEP196 52-card 4D stub (0.9373 SD)
DEP196 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1234% EV)9.5418%DEP196 Ace-1 (14 out, 2 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP196

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP196 · 4D)

On the electronic scoreboard for DEP196 (4D, 75% depth, 52 cards left), Bead Plate and Big Road circles record Banker (45.8752%) and Player (44.5830%) outcomes, whereas Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig marks reflect column symmetry rather than Ace-1 card counts (2/16).

  • DEP196 (4D 75%): 52/208 cards with 2/16 Ace-1 (5A).
  • DEP196 (Ace-1 split): 45.8752% Banker, 44.5830% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 52 4D cards (5B).
  • DEP196 (4% Vig EV): -0.5428% Banker, -1.2922% Player, -14.1234% Tie, 0.9373 SD at 75% (5C).
  • DEP196 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 2 Ace-1 stub count (5D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 14 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards leave a 4D shoe by 75% depth (DEP196), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Ace-1 stub counts (2/16 in 52 cards); Banker carries a -0.5428% expectation under 4%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android