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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · ACE-1 · 70% DEPTH

4-Deck Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 70% Penetration (5% Audit DEP195)

Removing 13 of 16 Ace (1-Point Pip) (Ace-1) cards at 70% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 3 Ace-1 cards inside a 62-card stub (DEP195), producing 45.8750% Banker wins, 44.5831% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 1.0019% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0019%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2919%
Ace-1 in 62-Card Stub
3/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9368
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B P B B P P B P B P B B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = = ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPBPBPBBPPBPBPBB) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP195 (4D Ace-1 at 70% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP195)
62 / 208 Cards

70% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Ace-1 Remaining
3 of 16 Cards

13 Ace cards valued at 1 modulo-10 point removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0019%

Resolved at 45.8750% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2919%

Resolved at 44.5831% Player win rate with 0.9368 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1234% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP195.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP195

How Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 70% Depth Impacts 4D (5% Vig)

Shoe-stub analysis DEP195 inspects 62 remaining cards at 70% penetration of a 208-card (4D) pack after 13 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards have cleared, leaving 3 Ace-1 cards and a 1.0019% 5% Banker edge.

When 13 Ace-1 cards exit a 4D shoe by 70% penetration (DEP195, 3 left in 62 cards), when fewer aces remain, (dep195-ace-1) player 7 and 8 third-card (62c) transitions from 6 and 7 (dep195-ace-1·62c) occur less often during six-card resolutions, combining a +0.44 bps rank vector with 5% settlement (-1.0019% Banker EV).

State DEP195 (4D, 70% depth, 3/16 Ace-1 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP195 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP195 Banker (5% Vig)45.8750% (-1.0019% EV)45.8732%DEP195 4D 70% (3 Ace-1)
DEP195 Player (1:1)44.5831% (-1.2919% EV)44.5850%DEP195 62-card 4D stub (0.9368 SD)
DEP195 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1234% EV)9.5418%DEP195 Ace-1 (13 out, 3 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP195

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP195 · 4D)

Across 100-hand session horizons at state DEP195 (4D 70% depth, 3/16 Ace-1 in 62 cards), single-hand dispersion (0.9368 SD) dominates the 1.0019% (5% Vig) Banker and 1.2919% Player expectation gap.

  • DEP195 (4D 70%): 62/208 cards with 3/16 Ace-1 (7A).
  • DEP195 (Ace-1 split): 45.8750% Banker, 44.5831% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 62 4D cards (7B).
  • DEP195 (5% Vig EV): -1.0019% Banker, -1.2919% Player, -14.1234% Tie, 0.9368 SD at 70% (7C).
  • DEP195 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 3 Ace-1 stub count (7D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 13 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards leave a 4D shoe by 70% depth (DEP195), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Ace-1 stub counts (3/16 in 62 cards); Banker carries a -1.0019% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android